United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

I would probably sell my soul only for Lib Dems to have more MPs than Tories. I know that this is not going to happen, but still.

[Pericles]

I would probably sell my soul only for Lib Dems to have more MPs than Tories. I know that this is not going to happen, but still.

Unlike Canada 1993, I think the Tories would still get treated as the opposition by the media and the public (so a tinge of Canada 2011 perhaps). So they could then eventually compete again with Labour, though it would be harder in the short term. If Reform get more seats though, that would definitely be an extinction level event.

[Chaos with Keir Starmer]

https://www.electionbingo.co.uk/

Under a Labour Government the UK will be able to advance to having 5x5 Bingo cards.

Thankfully, this came to me from July 5th.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Dawn of the final day: (possibly) my last canvassing update

I spent one more week in the constituency I’ve been canvassing for most of the campaign, then moved to a completely different area.

In the first, I ended the period not having met a single person who was willing to say outright that they were voting Conservative (though I did meet some fairly obvious Conservative voters, I think this is notable in itself). The LDs will easily flip this seat and have almost certainly over-targeted it (deliberately, IMO. More to reveal after e-day!).

In the second - a formerly Eurosceptic area - I met a few openly Tory/Reform voters. The contrast made me a little nervous at first, but I’ve learnt just the electorate is (mostly) just more forthright here. This seat (and others) deserved more resources from the national party, but I still expect a relatively comfortable flip. I’ll be doing some polling day work there tomorrow and will try to keep you posted.

[GoTfan]

Anyone have any tips on where I can find a livestream of the election night?

[DistingFlyer]

Final poll graph update with twenty hours to go:

[Thomas D]

Anyone have any tips on where I can find a livestream of the election night?

Sky News live streams on Youtube.

[Horus]

What's up with the labour decline over the past couple weeks? Makes me think it'll look more 1997ish than Canada '93.

[Thomas D]

I think the Reform number will decide that.  If it's 12-13% it's probably in the ballpark on '97. If it's north of 17% it'll be closer to '93.  But I think the floor for the Tories is about 70 seats.

[Pericles]

Be wary of these kind of insider leaks, but even the Tories see the landslide being bigger than 1997.

   
The Conservatives’ latest internal projections forecast that the party would confidently retain about 80 seats, with another 60-odd constituencies viewed as being “in play”, according to a senior Tory insider. 

It suggests that, even in an optimistic scenario, the Conservatives may only return about 140 MPs, down from 365 at the previous election. A Tory spokesperson did not immediately respond to a request for comment. 

Ahead of what looks likely to be one of the bleakest nights in Conservative history, Sunak admitted that some voters were out for revenge after years of squeezed living standards, poor public services and political chaos.

[Oryxslayer]

Be wary of these kind of insider leaks, but even the Tories see the landslide being bigger than 1997.

   
The Conservatives’ latest internal projections forecast that the party would confidently retain about 80 seats, with another 60-odd constituencies viewed as being “in play”, according to a senior Tory insider.

It suggests that, even in an optimistic scenario, the Conservatives may only return about 140 MPs, down from 365 at the previous election. A Tory spokesperson did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Ahead of what looks likely to be one of the bleakest nights in Conservative history, Sunak admitted that some voters were out for revenge after years of squeezed living standards, poor public services and political chaos.

Even if the quote is BS, This brings up an interesting point of perspective.  When we talk of 1997 we focus on Labour's 418 and whether they can top it. But conservative don't care about that, they care about the 165 holds.  And no time during this campaign have they really been matching that IMO. Arguably cause the country is in operating under different coalitions, the Lib-Dems are more revelant of an anti-Tory force, and  Farage is actually a thing.

[Steve from Lambeth]

Endorsement wise it’s telling how strong the Arts are for labour considering everything; clearly a sign of how the sector has been treated!

People in the creative sector, as a rule, are left-wing on average.

Sunak in Witney, Starmer in Sherwood Forest today.

This is utterly poetic, and I'm a Tory.

I have a question: How much of the votes were cast by mail in 2019?? And do you expect the number to increase??

I don't know and yes. Postal voting has been discussed more at this election than in all previous elections combined, and that's including the repeated media scares about large South Asian families.

The Sun has now endorsed Labour.

www.thesun.co.uk/news/28935096/its-time-for-a-change/

That has got to be one of the most right wing, half hearted endorsements I’ve ever seen. Essentially Sunak is pretty good, we wish he was even more right wing, but we back Labour because change.

Its hilarious in many ways, but nonetheless a front page that Labour won't mind at all tomorrow.

The actual Sun front page:

https://www.electionbingo.co.uk/

Is Edwin Hayward a high-ranking Octopus Energy figure or does he have his ways of extracting coupon codes from them? I can think of no other reason why he'd be encouraging people to claim £50 worth of credit if they elect Octopus as their new energy supplier. Other than that, funny.

[Sestak]

What's up with the labour decline over the past couple weeks? Makes me think it'll look more 1997ish than Canada '93.

There seems to have been some movement (probably either reflexive moving back to standard political allegiance, or, if you want to be more optimistic, people knowing how they will vote tactically), but there is also a question of how much of this recent movement is herding.

[Catholics vs. Convicts]

I, for one, cannot wait for this to distract me from American politics for 24 hours. Best July 4th ever.

[Joe Republic]

The Express and Daily Mail's positions seem unclear:

[Joe Republic]

And the Mail's "tactical voting guide" is perhaps the most pathetic thing I've ever seen.

Basically, vote Conservative everywhere except a small handful of safe Labour seats where you should vote for Reform.

[Sumner 1868]

The Express and Daily Mail's positions seem unclear:

And the Mail's "tactical voting guide" is perhaps the most pathetic thing I've ever seen.

Basically, vote Conservative everywhere except a small handful of safe Labour seats where you should vote for Reform.

This is terrible news for Ed Miliband.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1808740023874805908

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1808606853338689702

[TheTide]

Polls are now open.

Official media reporting will be limited throughout the day due to restrictions. There will probably be a lot of rumours etc on social media.

The weather looks okay for most of the country.

[Chaos with Keir Starmer]

The weather looks okay for most of the country.

How would rain in Northern Ireland affect the results there? /s

[YL]

Survation updated their MRP, but not a lot changed. The expected seat counts (rounded to integers) are Lab 475, Con 64, Lib Dem 60, SNP 13, Reform 13, Plaid 4, Green 3.

As before that Reform number mostly comes from adding up relatively small probabilities in lots of seats rather than actually having that many specific seats they are favoured to win. The seats where it actually gives them better than even chances of winning are Clacton, Ashfield, Boston & Skegness and Normanton & Hemsworth (just), with Great Yarmouth and Gainsborough not far off.

(No-one else has shown Labour in any difficulty in Normanton & Hemsworth.)

They still don't have forecasts for North Shropshire or Exmouth & Exeter East. This is because they don't think their model can handle the circumstances in those two seats.

[lfromnj]

The Uk lets commonwealth citizens vote in its elections?
WTF?

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-election-gives-hope-first-time-immigrant-voters-2024-07-02/?taid=6683dee9c900c3000152c056

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The Uk lets commonwealth citizens vote in its elections?
WTF?

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-election-gives-hope-first-time-immigrant-voters-2024-07-02/?taid=6683dee9c900c3000152c056

They aren't the only country that allows foreigners to vote. In Belgium, a foreigner can register to vote and then be subject to compulsory voting like a citizen.

[Torrain]

The Uk lets commonwealth citizens vote in its elections?
WTF?

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-election-gives-hope-first-time-immigrant-voters-2024-07-02/?taid=6683dee9c900c3000152c056

That’s the small-c conservative position here. The Scottish and Welsh governments have extended the franchise in local and devolved parliament elections to all residents over 16 with the right to remain in the UK.

So as long as you have a permanent address, aren’t currently incarcerated, and didn’t sneak in, you can vote. Have American mates in Glasgow who are here for postgrad courses who’ll be voting for Holyrood in 2026. Despite my best efforts ( ), they skew SNP.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I, for one, cannot wait for this to distract me from American politics for 24 hours. Best July 4th ever.

Same. At least it looks like one election this year is going to go as smoothly as expected.