United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

[OSR stands with Israel]

For people who discount how good Starmer has been , here’s a poll that really shows why he did a great job .

https://twitter.com/LukeTryl/status/1808124302874620219?t=wCjJ_dkl1hqerdb2lWb5jg...

[MABA 2020]

For people who discount how good Starmer has been , here’s a poll that really shows why he did a great job .

https://twitter.com/LukeTryl/status/1808124302874620219?t=wCjJ_dkl1hqerdb2lWb5jg...

His main success was just seeming more safe and electable, just a change in vibe.

Though I suppose action on antisemitism may have helped too.

[OSR stands with Israel]

For people who discount how good Starmer has been , here’s a poll that really shows why he did a great job .

https://twitter.com/LukeTryl/status/1808124302874620219?t=wCjJ_dkl1hqerdb2lWb5jg...

His main success was just seeming more safe and electable, just a change in vibe.

Though I suppose action on antisemitism may have helped too.

After the past 5 years that vibe probably is very appealing too . Him being boring might be actually helping him

[YL]

Survation "final call" MRP

Lab 484
Con 64
Lib Dem 61
SNP 10
Reform 7
Plaid 3
Green 3
(expected seat counts, not counts of seats where they have the parties ahead; they only have one seat with Reform in the lead)

https://www.survation.com/survation-mrp-labour-99-certain-to-win-more-seats-than-in-1997/

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

For people who discount how good Starmer has been , here’s a poll that really shows why he did a great job .

https://twitter.com/LukeTryl/status/1808124302874620219?t=wCjJ_dkl1hqerdb2lWb5jg...

Or it could be that Sunak is terrible, that everyone was discounting how good BoJo was and that if he had come back and run the election instead the Tories might actually be competitive or at least losing with dignity. You can't tell whether the difference is because of Corbyn/Starmer or Boris/Sunak from this poll alone. Frankly I'd say that the latter is a far greater factor: at least Boris understood that the Tory party can't afford to be outflanked on its right. He was able to defuse the threat of Farage easily whereas Sunak was so incompetent and weak that he brought Farage out of retirement.

Corbyn managed 40% in 2017 (wildly overperforming the polling at the time!) and going by current polling it's entirely plausible that Starmer does worse than that. He isn't winning because he's somehow wildly more popular than Corbyn but because he had the good fortune to go against the most unpopular and inept Tory government in over a century led by an unelected PM with the political instincts of a lemming.

[Talleyrand]

Survation "final call" MRP

Lab 484
Con 64
Lib Dem 61
SNP 10
Reform 7
Plaid 3
Green 3
(expected seat counts, not counts of seats where they have the parties ahead; they only have one seat with Reform in the lead)

https://www.survation.com/survation-mrp-labour-99-certain-to-win-more-seats-than-in-1997/

Someone is going to have major egg on their face Friday.

[Conservatopia]

Just for fun (not cope guys I promise) here's what the Labour lead would be if the polling "error" were the same as each of the previous elections. For reference the average Labour lead for 2024 is currently about 19%. Numbers are rounded fairly heavily for simplicity.

2010: 20% (+1)
2015: 12% (-7)
2017: 24% (+5)
2019: 17% (-2)

If the biggest recent polling discrepancy (2015) were repeated only then would Labour be held to a normal sized majority. But a 12pt lead with the Tories below 30% is still enough for a pretty decent landslide, probably a reverse-2019.

[Person Man]

Just for fun (not cope guys I promise) here's what the Labour lead would be if the polling "error" were the same as each of the previous elections. For reference the average Labour lead for 2024 is currently about 19%. Numbers are rounded fairly heavily for simplicity.

2010: 20% (+1)
2015: 12% (-7)
2017: 24% (+5)
2019: 17% (-2)

If the biggest recent polling discrepancy (2015) were repeated only then would Labour be held to a normal sized majority. But a 12pt lead with the Tories below 30% is still enough for a pretty decent landslide, probably a reverse-2019.

and 24%?

[WD]

Why exactly were polls so off in 2015?

[Oryxslayer]

Why exactly were polls so off in 2015?

They really weren't.  It was a normal MOE result.  What was off was the seat estimates, which missed a result that had awful Labour geographically vote distribution.

[Person Man]

Why exactly were polls so off in 2015?

They really weren't.  It was a normal MOE result.  What was off was the seat estimates, which missed a result that had awful Labour geographically vote distribution.

Kind of like 2016.

[Joe Republic]

The Guardian does a walk around in Grantham, finding plenty of disaffected Tories.

“Which paper did you say you were from?” said Rogan, when asked if the Guardian could take their picture. “Oh that’s fine, nobody we know is going to see the Guardian.”

[JimJamUK]

Why exactly were polls so off in 2015?

They really weren't.  It was a normal MOE result.  What was off was the seat estimates, which missed a result that had awful Labour geographically vote distribution.

MOE applies to individual polls, the 2015 ones massively herded around a tied race in a way that was statistically unjustifiable.

There were a number of reasons for the polling failure in 2015, but the main one was unrepresentative samples. All polling these days will get people who are too politically engaged, and in 2015 there was a particular issue with young respondents who stated they were much likelier to vote than in previous elections. The young people they sampled did end up voting, but young people taking polls are not representative of young people as a whole. This was compounded by the unusually large age gap in voting behaviour (at least unusual before 2017/2019) which meant getting unrepresentative samples really did lead to too many Labour voters in the sample.

Of course, many pollsters responded to this not by trying to get more representative samples, but ‘modelling’ turnout in a way that would have predicted the 2015 result on 2015 unrepresentative samples. We all know how well that worked out…

[beesley]

The penultimate day of campaigning and here are today's visits:

Sunak in Mid Bedfordshire, Witney, Banbury and Stratford on Avon. Plus Finchley and Golders Green which I missed from the weekend.
Starmer in Sherwood Forest, North East Derbyshire, and Cannock Chase.
Davey in Taunton and Wellington, and North Cornwall.

A good number of seats visited by two party leaders now - Banbury, Stratford, Finchley, and Cannock Chase from this batch. But TimTurner will be disappointed to see none with all three.

Noticeable how some traditional battlegrounds of recent years have been relatively un-visited: West Yorkshire, Lancashire, North Wales, the Black Country, the Bristol area. It says a lot.

[Storr]

The Guardian does a walk around in Grantham, finding plenty of disaffected Tories.

“Which paper did you say you were from?” said Rogan, when asked if the Guardian could take their picture. “Oh that’s fine, nobody we know is going to see the Guardian.”

"But Reform UK is predicted only to come third here, which was because, as Rogan put it, “they’re just focusing on immigration, they don’t seem to have a plan beyond that. Farage pops up and I just think ‘whatever mate, sod off’.”"

[BL53931]

Looking for good TV coverage Thursday night for UK elections. Will CNN have this?

[Oryxslayer]

Sky UK is live on YT in US almost as constantly as CSPAN. According to our UK posters there are seemingly better than previously when it comes to implicit bias.

In 2019 BBC had a stream that wasn't geoblocked for those abroad without VPNs, and if you do have a VPN signing up to watch on the website is free. Though since Kuenssberg is hosting,  that may end up the place to watch live political coping.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

The Guardian does a walk around in Grantham, finding plenty of disaffected Tories.

“Which paper did you say you were from?” said Rogan, when asked if the Guardian could take their picture. “Oh that’s fine, nobody we know is going to see the Guardian.”

"But Reform UK is predicted only to come third here, which was because, as Rogan put it, “they’re just focusing on immigration, they don’t seem to have a plan beyond that. Farage pops up and I just think ‘whatever mate, sod off’.”"

His name being Rogan is the icing on the cake.

[MABA 2020]

For people who discount how good Starmer has been , here’s a poll that really shows why he did a great job .

https://twitter.com/LukeTryl/status/1808124302874620219?t=wCjJ_dkl1hqerdb2lWb5jg...

His main success was just seeming more safe and electable, just a change in vibe.

Though I suppose action on antisemitism may have helped too.

After the past 5 years that vibe probably is very appealing too . Him being boring might be actually helping him

Oh it's definitely helping

[Logical]

Looking for good TV coverage Thursday night for UK elections. Will CNN have this?

Sky : https://www.youtube.com/live/yNlqaj7h2AA
ITV : https://www.youtube.com/live/Xu9DdrBCopA
BBC TV coverage available on their website for free.
For Channel 4 coverage you need to get creative*.

*piracy

[Mike88]

Looking for good TV coverage Thursday night for UK elections. Will CNN have this?

Sky : https://www.youtube.com/live/yNlqaj7h2AA
BBC TV coverage available on their website for free.
For ITV and Channel 4 coverage you need to get creative*.

*piracy

ITV had a youtube live feed in 2019. Not sure about this time around.

Also, Boris appeared at a Tory party event this evening, although Sunak and Boris did not appear together:

[Logical]

The ITV line up has Balls, Osborne and Sturgeon. Excellent team if you enjoy schadenfreude and the sound of knives being twisted.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Polling today apparently runs as: Techne Lab 40, Con 21, Ref 16, LDem 11, Greens 6, SNP 3, Redfield and Wilton Lab 41, Con 22, Ref 16, Greens 6, SNP 3, Verian Lab 36, Con 21, Ref 16, LDem 13, Greens 7, SNP 3. Meanwhile the national totals from the Survation MRP are: Lab 42, Con 23, Ref 12, LDem 11, Greens 5, SNP 2.

[oldtimer]

Survation "final call" MRP

Lab 484
Con 64
Lib Dem 61
SNP 10
Reform 7
Plaid 3
Green 3
(expected seat counts, not counts of seats where they have the parties ahead; they only have one seat with Reform in the lead)

https://www.survation.com/survation-mrp-labour-99-certain-to-win-more-seats-than-in-1997/

Someone is going to have major egg on their face Friday.

Welsh polling points to a bit of a different direction:

Labour gaining very little over 2019, Tory vote halving, Reform 3rd, LD no gains, strong left wing protest vote.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well, that depends on the company. Four have had a go this time. YouGov say Lab 40, Con 16, Ref 16, Plaid 14, LDem 7, Greens 5. More in Common say Lab 42, Con 22, Ref 14, Plaid 9, Greens 5, LDem 4. Redfield & Wilton say Lab 46, Ref 17, Con 15, Plaid 10, LDem 7, Greens 4. Savanta say Lab 49, Con 19, Plaid 12, Ref 12, LDem 5, Greens 3.