United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

[Conservatopia]

Don't believe polls that ask if Event X made people more or less likely to vote for something. People who weren't supporting them will just always answer it made them less likely and people who were already supporting them will say it made them more likely.

Everyone knows this but the papers commission the polls anyway because it writes headlines.

Generally I feel as if we find out about what the big events are in a more obvious way, even if in hindsight, anyway (partly because we can see the change ourselves) e.g. D-Day this campaign. Happy to be proven wrong if there's research that suggests otherwise.

(Also Conservatopia, not seen much of you during the campaign period, so a belated hi)

Been busy drowning my sorrows mate.

[CumbrianLefty]

Cheer up, as Sunak himself said - its not over!

[xelas81]

It is hypothetical so take it with grain of salt but interesting survey data that shows significant Green to Labour tactical voting.

https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49886-one-in-five-voters-say-they-are-voting-tactically-at-the-2024-general-election

Even after losing votes to tactical voting 7% would be all time best results for Greens.

[CumbrianLefty]

I do struggle to process the idea that Labour is no more "intrinsically" popular now than in 2010 tbh.

[Compuzled_One]

I assume Galloway is likely to lose his seat, considering how insane it was he got it at all?

[beesley]

I do struggle to process the idea that Labour is no more "intrinsically" popular now than in 2010 tbh.

Not least because less encompassing other measures of popularity surveyed - such as Starmer's personal ratings - would suggest he is more popular, and the gap between Labour and Conservative according to many surveyed metrics is far starker than the reverse in 2010.

[OSR stands with Israel]

This is amazing but Starmer had more positive things to say about RN than Farage did

[JimJamUK]

Any hunches on hertsmere?

The local election results were terrible for the Tories and Dowden seems to be campaigning there a lot- it’s iirc got a sizeable Jewish population and is the type of place people are leaving London for.

The Tories still led by over 10% last May, so it’s still the sort of seat they should win in all but ‘leader of the opposition Ed Davey’ territory.

[beesley]

This is amazing but Starmer had more positive things to say about RN than Farage did

I don't like Marine Le Pen but I also don't like this line of questioning - this is not a specific question such as 'should the UK stop selling arms to xyz' that he might be better placed to talk about. The UK government seeks good relations with a wide range of politicians across allies and neutral countries, let alone adversaries, despite many of them being pretty bad. Of course Starmer should aim to work with Le Pen on small boats or any other issues - whether he is able to for whatever reason is another matter. We also hear this question - will he work with Trump? The idea the UK Prime Minister should have no intention of working with the US is ridiculous, and in terms of *principles* that's all Starmer or whoever should be thinking of as anything else requires more facts and events, of which I would set a high threshold not to 'work with' the US.

[MABA 2020]

Tice vs Farage seems like a "coughing baby vs hydrogen bomb" match up

Oh, Tice isn't going to *win*, but if Farage rage-quits the party, and we get "shambling husk of Reform" vs "Farage party v3" it'll at least be more interesting than watching Nigel preside over another late-stage UKIP.

Can't imagine he'll leave if Reform end up with a foothold in parliament, makes it harder to just start over.

[DL]

Now the Tories are showing real desperation by launching an anti-Semitic attack on Starmer for saying he stops work at 6pm on Fridays so the family can observe the Jewish sabbath in honour of his wife’s family

[Compuzled_One]

Now the Tories are showing real desperation by launching an anti-Semitic attack on Starmer for saying he stops work at 6pm on Fridays so the family can observe the Jewish sabbath in honour of his wife’s family

W-wut?

[YL]

I assume Galloway is likely to lose his seat, considering how insane it was he got it at all?

That has been my assumption, but there have been reports that it is touch and go.

There are a number of demographically better seats for him, though of course several of them have had experience of him in the past.

[JimJamUK]

I assume Galloway is likely to lose his seat, considering how insane it was he got it at all?

That has been my assumption, but there have been reports that it is touch and go.

There are a number of demographically better seats for him, though of course several of them have had experience of him in the past.

FWIW, Labour we’re well ahead in the local elections in Rochdale in May, which was very much not the case in Bradford West in 2012.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It wasn't mentioned in the 'places we're nervous about' piece, but then if it's seen as a seat to be (re)gained rather than one to be defended it wouldn't really count.

[beesley]

A penultimate update from me on this front.

In the last few days of June, Sunak added Stockton West, Redcar, Amber Valley, a Leeds seat which I believe to be Leeds Central and Headingley, and spent another day in his home seat of Richmond and Northallerton. He visited Stoke on Trent South today, and is currently holding a rally in Bosworth - I don't know what Luke Evans has on him but he has already visited there (and visited a different Stoke seat on that day incidentally).

Starmer visited three seats today: Buckingham and Bletchley, Banbury, and Hitchin. He also visited Aldershot, and in the last few days visited Stoke on Trent South, Macclesfield, Aldershot, and Harrow East.

Ed Davey's tour of his targets reached South Cotswolds today as well as second visits to Eastbourne and Wokingham. On top of that he visited Hazel Grove, St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire, Henley and Thame, Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross, North East Fife, Edinburgh West, Cheltenham and Mid Dunbartonshire.

[Punxsutawney Phil]

Now the Tories are showing real desperation by launching an anti-Semitic attack on Starmer for saying he stops work at 6pm on Fridays so the family can observe the Jewish sabbath in honour of his wife’s family

This is beyond parody.

[oldtimer]

Now the Tories are showing real desperation by launching an anti-Semitic attack on Starmer for saying he stops work at 6pm on Fridays so the family can observe the Jewish sabbath in honour of his wife’s family

This is beyond parody.

I feel that the Conservatives have lost their opportunity to turn things around a bit after Sunak's debate victory.

They look like a busted flush again, and I will be surprised if the LD don't overtake them in seats.

[Compuzled_One]

Now the Tories are showing real desperation by launching an anti-Semitic attack on Starmer for saying he stops work at 6pm on Fridays so the family can observe the Jewish sabbath in honour of his wife’s family

This is beyond parody.

I feel that the Conservatives have lost their opportunity to turn things around a bit after Sunak's debate victory.

They look like a busted flush again, and I will be surprised if the LD don't overtake them in seats.

I mean, the new polling aggregate has the Tories getting to 24%, so if that holds I think they'll get ahead (although be below 100 seats).

[TheTide]

Now the Tories are showing real desperation by launching an anti-Semitic attack on Starmer for saying he stops work at 6pm on Fridays so the family can observe the Jewish sabbath in honour of his wife’s family

This is beyond parody.

I feel that the Conservatives have lost their opportunity to turn things around a bit after Sunak's debate victory.

They look like a busted flush again, and I will be surprised if the LD don't overtake them in seats.

I mean, the new polling aggregate has the Tories getting to 24%, so if that holds I think they'll get ahead (although be below 100 seats).

Which polling aggregate? They are at around 20% on average across the pollsters at present.  Does this refer to the range rather than the average?

[WD]

Uh….

https://twitter.com/mattholehouse/status/1807887755239665971

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Polls again today and you might notice something: More in Common Lab 39, Con 24, Ref 15, LDem 12, Greens 5, SNP 3; JL Partners Lab 39, Con 24, Ref 16, LDem 10, Greens 5, SNP 4; Savanta Lab 39, Con 24, Ref 13, LDem 10, Greens 4, SNP 3.

Note that all three are 'adjusting' firms to different extents at present and that Savanta polls the UK rather than GB, which has a slight effect on the figures.

[Logical]

It's usually a bad sign when polls are herding. Makes a significant polling miss more likely.

[afleitch]

It's usually a bad sign when polls are herding. Makes a significant polling miss more likely.

It's been seen in Scottish polling too.

[TheTide]

It's usually a bad sign when polls are herding. Makes a significant polling miss more likely.

As noted above, the three pollsters are in a specific category.