United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

[gerritcole]

Is young BIPOC leader Sunak planning to move to CA after the election?

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/06/19/rishi-sunak-california-00164050

Or is this a hit piece attacking his wealth and indian blood

[oldtimer]

Biggest strategic moment of this election so far is the Boris-Farage war over foreign policy, when most people care about the economy or social programs.

Almost all of the Reform vote is pro-Boris and they need each other to weaken the current Conservative party to get in it.

[oldtimer]

On the Gambling Scandal, everyone around Sunak has been caught or under investigation but not Sunak yet, despite his own inclination for gambling:

https://twitter.com/carolvorders/status/1804622827884069318

Sunak has denied that he's under investigation but will anyone believe him ?

[Logical]

Focaldata MRP
https://twitter.com/focaldataHQ/status/1805265098803450304

LAB 450 - 41.4%
CON 110 - 23%
LDM 50 - 11.3%
SNP 16 - 2.5%
PC 2 - 0.4%
REF 1 - 15.5%
GRN 1 - 5.2%

https://www.focaldata.com/blog/focaldata-prolific-uk-general-election-mrp

[Almost Anyone But Biden Or Trump (ABBoT but not Greg Abbott)]

https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1805269652861231157

RedfieldWilton
Labour leads Reform by 23%.

Joint-highest Reform %.

Joint-lowest Conservative %.

🇬🇧 Westminster VI (21-24 June):

Labour 42% (–)
Reform UK 19% (–)
Conservative 18% (–)
Lib Dem 12% (+1)
Green 6% (+1)
SNP 3% (–)
Other 2% (+1)

Changes +/- 19-20 June

[oldtimer]

Focaldata MRP
https://twitter.com/focaldataHQ/status/1805265098803450304

LAB 450 - 41.4%
CON 110 - 23%
LDM 50 - 11.3%
SNP 16 - 2.5%
PC 2 - 0.4%
REF 1 - 15.5%
GRN 1 - 5.2%

https://www.focaldata.com/blog/focaldata-prolific-uk-general-election-mrp

Focaldata doesn't think their own MRP is accurate and will probably do another one to double check:

https://twitter.com/samfr/status/1805274462465466566?s=46

[Steve from Lambeth]

This Express article is a perfect demonstration of inept Tory campaigning, and I'm a Tory. Rishi Sunak here is going after Kier Starmer because he "didn’t just oppose Brexit. He voted to block it 48 times in Parliament and energetically campaigned for a second referendum with free movement of people."

Meanwhile, if Starmer wins the election, his Home Secretary will be Yvette Cooper. EU Exit Day was delayed multiple times - from March 31st to April 12th to October 31st to January 31st - in large part because Cooper, alongside the now-disgraced Oliver Letwin, repeatedly authored and rammed through Acts (sometimes with barely one day of debate in both Commons and Lords put together) to delay the deadline.

Why has Cooper's name not been mentioned by CCHQ once in this whole shenanigans?

As an interesting aside, in 2001, Tony Blair was going to deliver a speech to the TUC Conference in which he was going to outline the UK's roadmap to Eurozone membership. This would have worked out nicely had the speech not been scheduled for literally an hour after the first plane hit the World Trade Center. The Conference was cancelled and the speech was never delivered.

[oldtimer]

This Express article is a perfect demonstration of inept Tory campaigning, and I'm a Tory. Rishi Sunak here is going after Kier Starmer because he "didn’t just oppose Brexit. He voted to block it 48 times in Parliament and energetically campaigned for a second referendum with free movement of people."

Meanwhile, if Starmer wins the election, his Home Secretary will be Yvette Cooper. EU Exit Day was delayed multiple times - from March 31st to April 12th to October 31st to January 31st - in large part because Cooper, alongside the now-disgraced Oliver Letwin, repeatedly authored and rammed through Acts (sometimes with barely one day of debate in both Commons and Lords put together) to delay the deadline.

Why has Cooper's name not been mentioned by CCHQ once in this whole shenanigans?

As an interesting aside, in 2001, Tony Blair was going to deliver a speech to the TUC Conference in which he was going to outline the UK's roadmap to Eurozone membership. This would have worked out nicely had the speech not been scheduled for literally an hour after the first plane hit the World Trade Center. The Conference was cancelled and the speech was never delivered.

That's probably for 2029, Cooper's seat was a marginal in 2019 and voted 69% Leave.
If she does something about europe again she would be in trouble once more.

[CumbrianLefty]

There's also a poll of Holborn & St Pancras

Lab 54%
Green 14%
Lib Dem 9%
Con 8%
Ind Feinstein 6%
Reform UK 4%

Considering my opinion of Starmer i'd like to see it be even lower if not losing.I know it won't happen but how crazy would it be if both Sunak and Starmer lost their seats?

Not going to happen with Starmer, I'm certain about Sunak for years now.

Labour do have problems in inner cities and the red wall, perhaps they could lose Leicester East to Vaz or North Durham or even Barnsley on the extremes.

But unlike 2015 and 2019, the destruction of the Tory party and the SNP is masking it.

No idea where you are getting this from, but its very unlikely to be the case. As backed up by recent actual election results in such places.

[DL]

This Express article is a perfect demonstration of inept Tory campaigning, and I'm a Tory. Rishi Sunak here is going after Kier Starmer because he "didn’t just oppose Brexit. He voted to block it 48 times in Parliament and energetically campaigned for a second referendum with free movement of people."

Considering the extent to which Brexit has been a total fiasco - I would have thought that Sunak attacking Starmer for being "too anti-Brexit" would just increase support for Starmer.

[CumbrianLefty]

This Express article is a perfect demonstration of inept Tory campaigning, and I'm a Tory. Rishi Sunak here is going after Kier Starmer because he "didn’t just oppose Brexit. He voted to block it 48 times in Parliament and energetically campaigned for a second referendum with free movement of people."

Meanwhile, if Starmer wins the election, his Home Secretary will be Yvette Cooper. EU Exit Day was delayed multiple times - from March 31st to April 12th to October 31st to January 31st - in large part because Cooper, alongside the now-disgraced Oliver Letwin, repeatedly authored and rammed through Acts (sometimes with barely one day of debate in both Commons and Lords put together) to delay the deadline.

Why has Cooper's name not been mentioned by CCHQ once in this whole shenanigans?

As an interesting aside, in 2001, Tony Blair was going to deliver a speech to the TUC Conference in which he was going to outline the UK's roadmap to Eurozone membership. This would have worked out nicely had the speech not been scheduled for literally an hour after the first plane hit the World Trade Center. The Conference was cancelled and the speech was never delivered.

That's probably for 2029, Cooper's seat was a marginal in 2019 and voted 69% Leave.
If she does something about europe again she would be in trouble once more.

Again, no hard evidence for this. And maybe also worth remembering that 2016 leave voters continue to die off at a much higher rate than remainers.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It is no great secret that a lot of people who are ordinarily beyond solid for Labour - and who even turn out in local elections - did not vote at the last election in areas like that.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/LukeTryl/status/1805240223996993833

I've avoided sharing tweets just because I find their content to be interesting, but I'll allow myself this one.

"Sheep running away from Rishi Sunak in Devon"
That's the funniest one of them all. Probably.

[Harlow]

This Express article is a perfect demonstration of inept Tory campaigning, and I'm a Tory. Rishi Sunak here is going after Kier Starmer because he "didn’t just oppose Brexit. He voted to block it 48 times in Parliament and energetically campaigned for a second referendum with free movement of people."

Considering the extent to which Brexit has been a total fiasco - I would have thought that Sunak attacking Starmer for being "too anti-Brexit" would just increase support for Starmer.

Well, the point for the Tories now is to win back the support they've lost to Reform by harping on their key issues. Trying to actually win the election is obviously out of the question at this point.

[oldtimer]

There's also a poll of Holborn & St Pancras

Lab 54%
Green 14%
Lib Dem 9%
Con 8%
Ind Feinstein 6%
Reform UK 4%

Considering my opinion of Starmer i'd like to see it be even lower if not losing.I know it won't happen but how crazy would it be if both Sunak and Starmer lost their seats?

Not going to happen with Starmer, I'm certain about Sunak for years now.

Labour do have problems in inner cities and the red wall, perhaps they could lose Leicester East to Vaz or North Durham or even Barnsley on the extremes.

But unlike 2015 and 2019, the destruction of the Tory party and the SNP is masking it.

No idea where you are getting this from, but its very unlikely to be the case. As backed up by recent actual election results in such places.

2015 and 2019 election results + anecdotes from Leicester about Keith Vaz's local campaign + anecdotes from North Durham about unusual Labour infighting  = Labour might underperform in those seats and areas.

Also the longterm trend of Labour overperforming in wealthy constituencies while underperforming in poorer constituencies will probably continue along the general re-alignment of global politics.

[TheTide]

This Express article is a perfect demonstration of inept Tory campaigning, and I'm a Tory. Rishi Sunak here is going after Kier Starmer because he "didn’t just oppose Brexit. He voted to block it 48 times in Parliament and energetically campaigned for a second referendum with free movement of people."

Meanwhile, if Starmer wins the election, his Home Secretary will be Yvette Cooper. EU Exit Day was delayed multiple times - from March 31st to April 12th to October 31st to January 31st - in large part because Cooper, alongside the now-disgraced Oliver Letwin, repeatedly authored and rammed through Acts (sometimes with barely one day of debate in both Commons and Lords put together) to delay the deadline.

Why has Cooper's name not been mentioned by CCHQ once in this whole shenanigans?

As an interesting aside, in 2001, Tony Blair was going to deliver a speech to the TUC Conference in which he was going to outline the UK's roadmap to Eurozone membership. This would have worked out nicely had the speech not been scheduled for literally an hour after the first plane hit the World Trade Center. The Conference was cancelled and the speech was never delivered.

That's probably for 2029, Cooper's seat was a marginal in 2019 and voted 69% Leave.
If she does something about europe again she would be in trouble once more.

Again, no hard evidence for this. And maybe also worth remembering that 2016 leave voters continue to die off at a much higher rate than remainers.

Possibly not even in the top three reasons why, in the Brexit 'right'/'wrong' polls, 'wrong' has about a 20% lead. The considerable number of people entering the electorate since 2016 overwhelmingly thinking it is 'wrong' and a higher number of Leave voters thinking it is 'wrong' than Remain voters thinking it is 'right' are the main contributing factors to such figures.

[Germany1994]

There's also a poll of Holborn & St Pancras

Lab 54%
Green 14%
Lib Dem 9%
Con 8%
Ind Feinstein 6%
Reform UK 4%

Considering my opinion of Starmer i'd like to see it be even lower if not losing.I know it won't happen but how crazy would it be if both Sunak and Starmer lost their seats?

Not going to happen with Starmer, I'm certain about Sunak for years now.

Labour do have problems in inner cities and the red wall, perhaps they could lose Leicester East to Vaz or North Durham or even Barnsley on the extremes.

But unlike 2015 and 2019, the destruction of the Tory party and the SNP is masking it.

No idea where you are getting this from, but its very unlikely to be the case. As backed up by recent actual election results in such places.

2015 and 2019 election results + anecdotes from Leicester about Keith Vaz's local campaign + anecdotes from North Durham about unusual Labour infighting  = Labour might underperform in those seats and areas.

Also the longterm trend of Labour overperforming in wealthy constituencies while underperforming in poorer constituencies will probably continue along the general re-alignment of global politics.

Bascially only your assumptions based on rumours and past results.

[oldtimer]

There's also a poll of Holborn & St Pancras

Lab 54%
Green 14%
Lib Dem 9%
Con 8%
Ind Feinstein 6%
Reform UK 4%

Considering my opinion of Starmer i'd like to see it be even lower if not losing.I know it won't happen but how crazy would it be if both Sunak and Starmer lost their seats?

Not going to happen with Starmer, I'm certain about Sunak for years now.

Labour do have problems in inner cities and the red wall, perhaps they could lose Leicester East to Vaz or North Durham or even Barnsley on the extremes.

But unlike 2015 and 2019, the destruction of the Tory party and the SNP is masking it.

No idea where you are getting this from, but its very unlikely to be the case. As backed up by recent actual election results in such places.

2015 and 2019 election results + anecdotes from Leicester about Keith Vaz's local campaign + anecdotes from North Durham about unusual Labour infighting  = Labour might underperform in those seats and areas.

Also the longterm trend of Labour overperforming in wealthy constituencies while underperforming in poorer constituencies will probably continue along the general re-alignment of global politics.

Bascially only your assumptions based on rumours and past results.

Add opinion polls and you get a pundit.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Focaldata MRP
https://twitter.com/focaldataHQ/status/1805265098803450304

LAB 450 - 41.4%
CON 110 - 23%
LDM 50 - 11.3%
SNP 16 - 2.5%
PC 2 - 0.4%
REF 1 - 15.5%
GRN 1 - 5.2%

https://www.focaldata.com/blog/focaldata-prolific-uk-general-election-mrp

I’ve marked the change from their last MRP results, polled for BestForBritain on the same boundaries, 20 Apr – 9 May 2023. I’m using the version of the model where they reallocate undecided voters and estimating their national vote shares using a weighted average of their projected vote shares for England, Wales and Scotland.

Lab +80 seats, +4.6% of est. national PV
Con -122, -6.4%
Lib Dem +49, +4.5%
SNP -12, +0.0%
Plaid Cymru +2, -0.1%
Reform UK +1, +10.0%
Green +1, +0.8%  (excluding NI in both old and new MRPs)

[RBH]

We know that witch will vote Reform UK anyway.

she's unhappy that Party Of Women didn't run in her constituency

[oldtimer]

This Express article is a perfect demonstration of inept Tory campaigning, and I'm a Tory. Rishi Sunak here is going after Kier Starmer because he "didn’t just oppose Brexit. He voted to block it 48 times in Parliament and energetically campaigned for a second referendum with free movement of people."

Meanwhile, if Starmer wins the election, his Home Secretary will be Yvette Cooper. EU Exit Day was delayed multiple times - from March 31st to April 12th to October 31st to January 31st - in large part because Cooper, alongside the now-disgraced Oliver Letwin, repeatedly authored and rammed through Acts (sometimes with barely one day of debate in both Commons and Lords put together) to delay the deadline.

Why has Cooper's name not been mentioned by CCHQ once in this whole shenanigans?

As an interesting aside, in 2001, Tony Blair was going to deliver a speech to the TUC Conference in which he was going to outline the UK's roadmap to Eurozone membership. This would have worked out nicely had the speech not been scheduled for literally an hour after the first plane hit the World Trade Center. The Conference was cancelled and the speech was never delivered.

That's probably for 2029, Cooper's seat was a marginal in 2019 and voted 69% Leave.
If she does something about europe again she would be in trouble once more.

Again, no hard evidence for this. And maybe also worth remembering that 2016 leave voters continue to die off at a much higher rate than remainers.

Possibly not even in the top three reasons why, in the Brexit 'right'/'wrong' polls, 'wrong' has about a 20% lead. The considerable number of people entering the electorate since 2016 overwhelmingly thinking it is 'wrong' and a higher number of Leave voters thinking it is 'wrong' than Remain voters thinking it is 'right' are the main contributing factors to such figures.

I never fell into the trap of D/K mean won't votes in referendums, AV and Remain had large leads because those against where hiding under D/K and an unpopular government was pushing for them.

The unpopularity of the Conservatives is not going to make places like Pontefract "Woke Remain" under a Labour government, her husband lost his seat because those places are socially conservative.

[Torrain]

Is young BIPOC leader Sunak planning to move to CA after the election?

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/06/19/rishi-sunak-california-00164050

Or is this a hit piece attacking his wealth and indian blood

Still few things funnier than "BIPOC" in a UK context.

Basically just "everyone but the EU immigrants" - a metric useless to essentially everyone but Nigel Farage.

[Joe Republic]

Still few things funnier than "BIPOC" in a UK context.

I'm curious to know where the major parties stand on lowering prescription drug prices and gun violence, especially among the African American communities.

[JimJamUK]

The Focaldata MRP, as a couple of others have as well, seems to have fallen into the trap of assuming the 2019 Brexit Party as the starting point for the Reform vote. As a consequence, they have ‘Red Wall’ seats as their top 5 constituencies, with Clacton only 7th. It seems likely they will do quite a bit above average in Barnsley and Hartlepool, but better than Clacton or Boston and Skegness? At the end of the day the Reform vote is mostly 2019 Tories who voted Leave, of which there are a lot more in very safe Tory seats than 2019 marginals.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Focaldata MRP, as a couple of others have as well, seems to have fallen into the trap of assuming the 2019 Brexit Party as the starting point for the Reform vote. As a consequence, they have ‘Red Wall’ seats as their top 5 constituencies, with Clacton only 7th. It seems likely they will do quite a bit above average in Barnsley and Hartlepool, but better than Clacton or Boston and Skegness? At the end of the day the Reform vote is mostly 2019 Tories who voted Leave, of which there are a lot more in very safe Tory seats than 2019 marginals.

This will have an effect all the way along given how MRPs work, as the Brexit Party did not stand against Conservative MPs.