United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

[TheTide]

As of now, it looks as though that twelve-point lead will go down as the 2024 campaign's answer to the ICM (are they still around?) five-point lead during the 1997 campaign.

[Pericles]

The models don't seem to be able to account for the Reform vote. There is all sorts of weird results of inputting a high Reform vote-eg Beaconsfield or East Devon are somehow the only Reform seats. Realistically, the Reform vote would be correlated with the same demographics that supported UKIP and the Brexit Party. We don't know how much though, and whether it appeals more to traditional Tories this time and less to populist, 'ancestrally Labour' voters.

If the Reform vote is competitive with the Tory vote, where do we think their seats would be? How about if we look at the top scoring seats for the Brexit Party in the 2019 EU elections (link)?

[YL]

The models don't seem to be able to account for the Reform vote. There is all sorts of weird results of inputting a high Reform vote-eg Beaconsfield or East Devon are somehow the only Reform seats. Realistically, the Reform vote would be correlated with the same demographics that supported UKIP and the Brexit Party. We don't know how much though, and whether it appeals more to traditional Tories this time and less to populist, 'ancestrally Labour' voters.

If the Reform vote is competitive with the Tory vote, where do we think their seats would be? How about if we look at the top scoring seats for the Brexit Party in the 2019 EU elections (link)?

I would think that the Tory places near the top of that list are the most likely, which are mostly the very right wing very Brexity places in Essex and Lincolnshire. (It's no surprise that Farage chose Clacton.) Other candidates might include North East Cambridgeshire, which has a fair amount in common with the Lincolnshire fenland seats, and perhaps some outer West Midlands seats like Kingswinford & South Staffs or Aldridge-Brownhills.

[YL]

Another one: Kieran Mullan, outgoing MP for Crewe & Nantwich, selected for Bexhill & Battle.

[Torrain]

Another one: Kieran Mullan, outgoing MP for Crewe & Nantwich, selected for Bexhill & Battle.

Starting to be some grumbling from veteran MPs who are defending vulnerable seats, and now see CCHQ parachuting 2019 MPs of… modest talent, into the party’s safest seats. Same with Chris Clarkson being handed Stratford upon Avon.

Nothing earth-shattering, but just another discipline/motivational issue for Sunak.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

All the indications that we have from parliamentary by-elections and also local elections suggests that the Reform vote will be relatively evenly distributed, probably more so than UKIPs vote was in 2015.

[Pericles]

Brutal leadership polling for Rishi even from the favourite Tory pollster.

[afleitch]

All the indications that we have from parliamentary by-elections and also local elections suggests that the Reform vote will be relatively evenly distributed, probably more so than UKIPs vote was in 2015.

In the PCC elections, where they stood in Derbyshire and Lincolnshire (demographically should be good areas for them), in their best LA's in each, Bolsover and Boston they only hit 18%

The variation between their worst and best LA's was no more than 5% in each direction.

So it's a flat vote.

And of course the Reform 'vote' might not even vote.

[Flyersfan232]

Have a feeling Farage will get in this time

why?

[afleitch]

Still no sign of the GE campaign coming 'offline' yet. Still lots sh**t migrant caps, single sex spaces, Farage. An election truly for about 2% of the population but 92% of the media-political class.

Wheel spinning in lieu of manifestos. I hope.

[Cassius]

Labour gives itself a black eye in its quest to win over the archetypal swing voter (me) by pledging to ban the import of foie gras - let’s see whether Starmer will reveal any feathers in his cap during this evening’s debate.

[CumbrianLefty]

Still no sign of the GE campaign coming 'offline' yet. Still lots sh**t migrant caps, single sex spaces, Farage. An election truly for about 2% of the population but 92% of the media-political class.

Wheel spinning in lieu of manifestos. I hope.

Like you I loathe Farage, but quite possibly his "re-entry" yesterday was the first thing many "normal" voters have noticed about this campaign since Sunak getting drenched when he originally called it.

The main possible exception to that is the National Service stuff - but that seems to have motivated its opponents rather more than the supposed target voters, which certainly wasn't the Tory plan.

Anyway, its the first debate tonight - despite the cynicism, quite a few will watch at least some of it.

[Joe Republic]

Have a feeling Farage will get in this time

why?

Clacton is the only seat to have ever (re-)elected a UKIP MP.

[kwabbit]

Have a feeling Farage will get in this time

why?

Farage got pretty close in 2015 and the Tory vote is obviously much weaker this election. If his main competition is a Tory, then it'll be easier for him to beat them. Clacton is also one of the most Brexity and right-wing constituencies in the UK and the only one to have already elected a UKIP MP.

[oldtimer]

The models don't seem to be able to account for the Reform vote. There is all sorts of weird results of inputting a high Reform vote-eg Beaconsfield or East Devon are somehow the only Reform seats. Realistically, the Reform vote would be correlated with the same demographics that supported UKIP and the Brexit Party. We don't know how much though, and whether it appeals more to traditional Tories this time and less to populist, 'ancestrally Labour' voters.

If the Reform vote is competitive with the Tory vote, where do we think their seats would be? How about if we look at the top scoring seats for the Brexit Party in the 2019 EU elections (link)?

The opinion polls suggests Reform get 0% of Remainers, so just look at the list of highest Leave seats.

For example the 2 Barnsley seats (68% Leave) stick out as Labour-Brexit 2019 semi-marginals.

Barnsley North: Lab maj. 4700 over Brexit with a 8500 Tory vote.
Barnsley South: Lab maj. 4000 over Brexit with a 10700 Tory vote.

[beesley]

Realistically I can't see Labour losing any seats to candidates/parties well to its right (i.e. Tories and Reform). The only one that gets flagged with much evidence behind it is Leicester East, but if that were to happen I would consider that to be an exception that proves the rule.

[beesley]

Sunak adds: Macclesfield, Bury North, Blyth and Ashington (the first English seat his party did not win in 2019 that he has visited), Redcar, Henley and Thame, Didcot and Wantage

Starmer adds: Bury North, Uxbridge and South Ruislip, Bolton North East

Davey adds: Wimbledon, North Shropshire, Cheadle

[Skye]

New Redfield & Wilton GE poll of Scotland shows Labour leading the SNP by 10 points.

https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1798021898716197309

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Does anyone know when the parties are supposed to release their manifestos? I would have expected them to have done so already, it felt like previous elections they were already out at this point, but that might just be my faulty memory and hindsight.

[oldtimer]

Warning, yougov to change their methodology:
https://twitter.com/anthonyjwells/status/1798008179844071603?s=19
My main complaint is that yougov have stopped their reliable Welsh polling, I always used it's swings to gauge the real picture in England.

[Storr]

Good to see Nigel is getting a warm welcome back to the UK:

"Nigel Farage pelted with a milkshake on UK election trail"

[Angel of Death]

Have a feeling Farage will get in this time

why?

Clacton is the only seat to have ever (re-)elected a UKIP MP.

That statement needs to be qualified by "in a general election", because a UKIP defector once also kept Rochester and Strood in a by-election.

[Germany1994]

Do we get another poll today??

[DL]

New Redfield & Wilton GE poll of Scotland shows Labour leading the SNP by 10 points.

https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1798021898716197309

Apparently seat projection says this would mean 40 seats for Labour in Scotland and just 7 for the SNP - sounds like what happened to the Bloc Quebecois in the 2011 Canadian federal election. I say good riddance to all separatist parties!

[MABA 2020]

Have a feeling Farage will get in this time

why?

Farage got pretty close in 2015 and the Tory vote is obviously much weaker this election. If his main competition is a Tory, then it'll be easier for him to beat them. Clacton is also one of the most Brexity and right-wing constituencies in the UK and the only one to have already elected a UKIP MP.

Yeah pretty much this