United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

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The consequences of importing conspiracy theories from across the pond. If postal voting is scrapped the 500+ seats for Labour maps might come true after all lol.
https://twitter.com/Bren4Bassetlaw/status/1787744981798527463

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Between the Euros, Olympics and a general election, it will be a fun and eventful summer.

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Charisma of a boiled fish

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I wonder if Seb Payne will manage to weasel himself into a safe seat now.

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Incredible decision to start your campaign looking like a rat that just crawled out of a sewer. Did no one really thought this through?

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Ol Nigey will not be standing.
https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1793554758923588029

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Trying his best to avoid accidentally winning Richmond and Northallerton.

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Westminster coke dealers hardest hit.

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Up next, bringing back fox hunting and death penalty.

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Kuenssberg eughh. First time I won't be watching BBC. I will tune in to see the exit poll (because it's tradition) and then I shall switch to Sky.
https://twitter.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1795422741513855395

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Trump's 34 felony convictions has already changed the electoral calculus...... in the UK.

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Good news for Tory Wipeout enjoyers. Reform are standing in 611/631 (96.8%) of GB constituencies.

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Good news for Tory Wipeout enjoyers. Reform are standing in 611/631 (96.8%) of GB constituencies.

source?

that's higher than what was initially reported.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xU271-9pfNYR4k_bvpZC1gz9m4_Yc1_XJkhec4iywUk/htmlview
One Reform candidate appears to have been a mistake so the final number is 610.
They managed to nominate a full slate in Wales and Scotland however.

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Curiously, Reform has a candidate listed on their website for East Grinstead and Uckfield but not on the SOPN. Did someone muck up their papers or.....?

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In yet a further sign that I need professional help, I had a dream last night about the UK election. The Workers Party won 5 seats and something called the "Crime Party" (which was, confusingly, anti-crime) won 2 seats south of London.

I would totally vote for the Crime Party!

I'd rather vote Dalek.

Where is Lord Buckethead running this year?

Lord Buckethead has retired but his spiritual successor, Count Binface, is running in Richmond and Northallerton.

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Let me be the first to make Führerbunker jokes.

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New Survation MRP
https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1802049409984745504
LAB 456
CON 72
LD 56
SNP 37
RFM 7
PC 2
GRN 1

The 7 Reform seats are :
Ashfield
Clacton
Exmouth and Exeter East
Great Yarmouth
Mid Leicestershire
North West Norfolk
South Suffolk

https://www.survation.com/mrp-update-first-mrp-since-farages-return/

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This is uhhhh..... someone who has given up?
https://twitter.com/Mike_Fabricant/status/1802968304736194856

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I don't believe Labour's vote will go down by as much as 12% in Starmer's seat but the two polls perfectly illustrate how the 40% headline national voting intention actually masks how much more efficient the Labour vote has become.

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Focaldata MRP
https://twitter.com/focaldataHQ/status/1805265098803450304

LAB 450 - 41.4%
CON 110 - 23%
LDM 50 - 11.3%
SNP 16 - 2.5%
PC 2 - 0.4%
REF 1 - 15.5%
GRN 1 - 5.2%

https://www.focaldata.com/blog/focaldata-prolific-uk-general-election-mrp

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Postal vote data from Edinburgh. With the timing of the election in Scotland, around a quarter of the votes cast will be postals.

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WeThink/Economist MRP


LAB 465
CON 76
LDM 52
SNP 29
REF 3
PC 3
GRN 3

https://wethink.report/news-hub/news/we-think-mrp-historical-low-for-the-conservatives/
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2024/06/26/our-new-mega-poll-gives-labour-an-expected-majority-of-280-seats

Let's just say that the Scotland numbers aren't serious.

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No mention of Leicester East or Sheffield Hallam.

Or Islington North, which suggests that Labour are pretty confident there.

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Better for Labour if England loses today?  /s

Better for football certainly.