United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

As someone from beyond the pond it feels funny to see Britain voting on Independence Day.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Don't you think Sunak looks tired?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Well, time to get this thing going.




I'm starting my expectations at the benchmark of approximately (so number are neater): 420 Labour, 140 Conservative, 50 Lib-Dem, 16 SNP, 3 Plaid, 3 Others including the Speaker, and 18 obviously from Northern Ireland. I have a rough list, but I would prefer not to go into seat-by-seat detail at this moment. 

People are forgetting how high of a climb this would be for Labour.  In the famous Blair Landslide they gained 146 seats. This prediction would be around that much. Plus for whatever reason right wing parties tend to fall in line and come around more than left wing parties who are overly concerned with “purity” … I happen to like Kier Starmer a lot. But the British public don’t - Labour should win this by default and it’ll be a good showing but polls tighten during a campaign we all know that and the inflation numbers are just enough to put the “but maybe” in the mind of disenchanted Tory voters - so  for sure a likely good night for Labour but the 400’s is unlikely and the poll of polls showing greater than the first Blair Landslide is taking it a little too far IMO.

So a rough idea of where I think this is going…

Labour                     360  (+155)
Conservative           210   (-134)
Liberal Democrat      35   (+20)
SNP                           25   (-18)

I do expect much of the Reform vote to get behind the Conservatives.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It's fascinating how Labour can run the 'are you better off than you were 14 years ago' line when 2010 was the middle of the GFC.

I suspect a lot of the general populace don't even remember that much about 2010 and the GFC anymore and they instead remember a general nostalgic view of pre-Brexit politics lol. Voters certainly do have very short memories (especially considering some now-voters were only 4(!) at the time)

A more competent Tory party might have been able to nail Labour for this, right? Ofc, it's clear we aren't facing the most competent Tory party right now.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Just came across this on YouTube.
Evidently Labour does seem to know very well what it's doing.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The canada election comparison comes to my mind is the Liberal one where they accidentally assaulted a teenager, the PM lost his cool with literal preteens and a cabinet minister poked a farmer calling him fat.

The Tories would kill for the position the Grits had in 1957. The Liberals very nearly won and would have still done so if not for that aforementioned rally. It would take a miracle to save the Tory government this time.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It seems to me they'll need national service just to fill their candidate lists.

lol

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/EoghanHeriot/status/1794804983541772556
This is a joke but it's telling the Tories can be effectively mocked like this isn't it?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Just an experiment - it might prove a waste of time, but it might prove interesting. If people want me to stop, or to continue, I'll follow their wishes.

Plz continue.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Almost a week old but you really got to love the memes coming put this election.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

FT out with a good adjustable prediction model

https://twitter.com/xtophercook/status/1795704746969641157

Striking how the Tory seat total collapses so quickly:
24%: 134
23%: 120
22%: 96
21%: 65
20%: 29
19%: 11
18%: 3

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

One matter that might complicate Starmer's government is he will have around 500 MP's, but he's personally quite unpopular for an incoming PM:

https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/rishi-sunaks-satisfaction-falls-equal-worst-ever-ipsos-rating-conservative-or-labour-leader

"Keir Starmer’s ratings have also fallen since February. 25% are satisfied with his performance as Labour leader (-4) and 56% are dissatisfied (+1). His net score of -31 is his worst as Labour leader since he recorded a -29 in May 2021.  Among Labour supporters, satisfaction with his performance has also dropped from 58% to 51%."

It's a recipe for massive party rebellions and splits, in extreme theory 180 MP's could leave Labour and form a new official opposition without even toppling Starmer.

Couldn’t there simply be a vote of no confidence and a new leader chosen?

Different rules than the Conservatives.

That’s ridiculous to not have a way to oust the leader.

In practice (as found from all the leadership challenges and elections) it's all about control of the NEC, just like the Conservatives is all about the 1922.

What's the NEC?

National Executive Committee.
It's an organ within the Labour Party.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Does This YouTube comment summarize well what people are angry about?

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

Vote Conservatives for more of this:

1. Highest energy bills in Europe.
2. Highest taxes in 70 years.
3. Highest interest rates since 2008.
4. Highest train fares in Europe.
5. Longest waiting lists in NHS history.
6. Raw sewage pumped into rivers and our coastline.
7. Lowest corporate taxes in 50 years.
8. Lowest State Pension in Europe.
9. Highest Immigration both legal and illegal ever.
10. Destroyed the NHS dentist service.
11. Brought the Brexit vote and ruined the country.
12. One failed Prime Minister after another.
13. Worlds shortest in post Prime Minister.
14. More corrupt MP's than any other party in parliament.
15. Europes longest Austerity for the lower paid.
16. Highest Council Tax rates in the World.
17. Reduced our Armed Forces more than any other G8 country.
18. Highest number of MP's that have been arrested for sexual offences.
19. Highest number of MP's that have been sacked for corruption and Fraudulent acts.
20. Voted to allow Bankers to have unlimited bonus's even though the bankers caused the crash of 2008.
21. More libraries closed due to council cuts than any other modern country.
22. Ruined and destroyed the Train services by giving private companies tax payers money as subsidies.
23. Voted against Labours creation of the minimum wage.
24. Water companies failing to produce safe drinking water due to profits going to the rich shareholders normally in other countries.
25. Trebled the National Debt whilst giving Tax cuts to the rich.
26. Promised £350 million per week after Brexit for our NHS.
27. Promised 40 brand new hospitals of which one was built.
28. Had a Liar and a Criminal Prime Minister, which is a G8 first.
29. And a Prime minister who crashed the economy and increased the mortgages of hundreds of thousands of people but was in office less time than a Lettuce is on a supermarket shelf.
30. The biggest increase in Foodbanks with some stupid Tories even bragging that they have more foodbanks in their constituency.
31. Broke all their promises on Net Zero and other Green and enviromental policies.
32. Promising to Level Up the North and South, which just meant absolutely nothing. The North is still far poorer in every sense than the South.

33. Increasing the mega rich  people wealth whilst causing the biggest cost of living crisis the UK has ever seen.
34. And finally, wasted billions of Tax payers money on crony PPE contracts for their friends and other Tory donators many of which made millions and invest it in tax havens.
God bless the Tories. The most evil and corrupt party this country has ever seen. It beggars belief that any working class person would ever vote for these self serving corrupt tories.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

How strict are the rules in the UK that party leaders must be elected MPs? In Canada its quite common for parties to choose a leader who is not an MP as leader and let them lead from outside the commons for years (in some cases). I'm just thinking that if the Tories are reduced to less than 100 seats - the pickings could be very slim for a new leader and maybe they might want to get a leader from outside parliament and then get that person elected in a subsequent byelection.

The Tory Party constitution forbids non-MPs from leading the party, iirc.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Have a feeling Farage will get in this time

Certainly he has likely better odds than in 2015.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Tories are trying hard to ensure their hold on pensioners...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Anyone else reminded of Neil Kinnock when Starmer said he was the first member of his family to go to university?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This is the first time I've ever heard of the name of the current Green leader.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I liked Ed Davey's performance in the post-debate interviews. He has a great sense of humor.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I think regardless of the result the Tories should replace the 1922 Committee as part of a complete replacement of its internal structure and procedures. (Rather fitting that about hundred years separates then from now, and before then 90 years from the Tamworth Manifesto that reinvented the Tory Party).

What would replace the 1922 Committee?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This election is looking a lot like the Netherlands one. Farage just had his debate moment just like Wilders.

Reform will win it.

Welcome to the forum!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

In yet a further sign that I need professional help, I had a dream last night about the UK election. The Workers Party won 5 seats and something called the "Crime Party" (which was, confusingly, anti-crime) won 2 seats south of London.

I would totally vote for the Crime Party!

I'd rather vote Dalek.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

In yet a further sign that I need professional help, I had a dream last night about the UK election. The Workers Party won 5 seats and something called the "Crime Party" (which was, confusingly, anti-crime) won 2 seats south of London.

I would totally vote for the Crime Party!

I'd rather vote Dalek.

Where is Lord Buckethead running this year?

Lord Buckethead has retired but his spiritual successor, Count Binface, is running in Richmond and Northallerton.

Presumably that's because the Prime Minister is also standing there?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The Reform candidate in Gavin Williamson's seat has defected to the Tories and withdrawn from the race. Possibly saved the seat for Sir Gav if national swing hit it as hard some models suggest.

Did they get the spider treatment by Gav, do you think?

Oh no, it's much worse than that:

(tbh, I'm still not over "Cronus the tarantula" - it's just too self-serious to be real).

What is that?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The Reform candidate in Gavin Williamson's seat has defected to the Tories and withdrawn from the race. Possibly saved the seat for Sir Gav if national swing hit it as hard some models suggest.

Did they get the spider treatment by Gav, do you think?

Oh no, it's much worse than that:

(tbh, I'm still not over "Cronus the tarantula" - it's just too self-serious to be real).

What is that?

A Dalek from 'Doctor Who.'

No I mean what's the person with the Dalek.