Why is New Jersey less blue compared to Maryland and Massachusetts?

[iceman]

New Jersey is sort of an anomaly in the northeast, a wealthy suburban state considered safe D but still votes to a lesser extent democratic compared to states like Massachusetts and Maryland. In favorable D years, the Dem candidate never wins more than 60% of the vote there. Even Obama managed to crack 60% in Connecticut and Delaware in 2008. Why is this so?

[Progressive Pessimist]

Lakewood and Ocean County's growth as a whole has been a big part of it.

Though historically, its suburbs have probably been more conservative than other states. Think about how close it is in proximity to both New York and Philadelphia while also having its own urban areas that were blighted by white flight.

Taxes are also the biggest issue separating the left and right in New Jersey in off-years, which are often much more Republican than presidential years. And that hasn't really changed even with education polarization.

[pikachu]

New England whites are more liberal and Maryland has more blacks.

[vtred]

Because we keep letting people in from Staten Island...

[Mr. Smith]

Delaware and Connecticut aren't as blue either.

[iceman]

Delaware and Connecticut aren't as blue either.

but as I said, Obama managed to crack 60% in those states in 2008. The Democrats never had 60% there in like more than 50 years.

[CookieDamage]

Delaware and Connecticut aren't as blue either.

but as I said, Obama managed to crack 60% in those states in 2008. The Democrats never had 60% there in like more than 50 years.

Obama came very close to cracking 60% in NJ in 2012.

[iceman]

Delaware and Connecticut aren't as blue either.

but as I said, Obama managed to crack 60% in those states in 2008. The Democrats never had 60% there in like more than 50 years.

Obama came very close to cracking 60% in NJ in 2012.

came very close but still not above 60%. He got 58.25% in 2012 when he got 57.14% in 2008. We all know why New York and New Jersey swung D that year, it’s because of Hurricane Sandy. But still it doesnt answer the question why DEMS cant crack 60% in NJ compared to other urban/suburban Northeast states.

[RINO Tom]

I mean, let's keep in mind that it is still exceedingly rare for a suburban county to vote at pro-Democratic margins that are similar to actual urban counties, for one thing.  However, it is interesting to look at Maryland's exit polls in 2020 vs. New Jersey.  I find Maryland to be much more culturally similar to New Jersey than Massachusetts, which falls under the cultural umbrella of New England.

URBAN
New Jersey (15%) ... 67% DEM, 31% GOP
Maryland (15%) ... 79% DEM, 20% GOP

SUBURBAN
New Jersey (62%) ... 59% DEM, 40% GOP
Maryland (60%) ... 70% DEM, 28% GOP

SMALL TOWN
New Jersey (15%) ... 51% GOP, 48% DEM
Maryland (11%) ... 52% DEM, 47% GOP

RURAL
New Jersey (8%) ... 56% GOP, 44% DEM
Maryland (14%) ... 59% GOP, 38% DEM

So, the two states' Urban and Suburban makeup is actually pretty close to identical ... and New Jersey has more voters identifying as being "Small Town," whereas Maryland has more identifying as being "Rural."  I do wonder how many "suburbanites" in New Jersey are marking "Small Town," given that the entire state is pretty much a collection of suburbs on a county-level basis.

While it's easy to focus on and be puzzled by New Jersey's suburbanites being significantly more Republican than Maryland's (and they are), it also cannot be ignored that Maryland's "Urban" voters are significantly more Democratic ... no doubt because Maryland has an actual, proper large city in Baltimore and thus a much higher Black population (32% compared to just 15% in New Jersey).  It also needs to be stated that the "orbit" of Washington, DC is going to make suburbs in Maryland decidedly more Democratic than your more "typical" suburbs of New York and Philadelphia in New Jersey.

TL;DR

My novice guess...

1. New Jersey has no true big city, and it is only 15% Black - barely above the national average.
2. The suburbs in Maryland vote disproportionately Democratic compared to other states due to the influence of Washington, DC.

I know that doesn't answer the Massachusetts question, but I would simply chalk that one up to New England being one of the few areas with a robust Democratic base of support in rural areas, which is going to be good for a few percentage points in that direction.

[wnwnwn]

MS is part of the North England anormality. Maryland has the influence of Washington DC and less land than the average state.