Northern Ireland General Discussion

[ObserverIE]

How many seats do TUV actually intend to stand in, or indeed fight proper campaigns?

The original notion was to try to blackmail the DUPstand in all eighteen, but both they and the DUP already said that they're going to stand aside for Easton in North Down.

[Oryxslayer]

How many seats do TUV actually intend to stand in, or indeed fight proper campaigns?

That's the million pound question isn't it? The poll is probably accurate if everything was similar across NI like a Stormont election, but for the FPTP seats we really won't know until the candidate lists are finalized.

TUV and Aontu are the obvious ones. Do they intend to only care about North Antrim and Belfast West respectively? If so, their supporters can probably be tossed into the (present) big two camps. SDLP and UUP: they got a higher profile right now cause the SDLP has two incumbents and the UUP are staking their turf early and publicly. But how will their candidates/campaigns/voters behave outside of those specific constituencies? And that's a real question, cause history tells us some will stay in their camps, some will look to the DUP/SF, and some will look to the Alliance. The NI situation is really different on a seat-by-seat basis, which complicates just polling the regional overall.

[LabourJersey]

Just came back from a holiday to Belfast myself. If you don't go actively looking for it, you're going to see pretty little in the way of sectarian stuff while visiting as a tourist.

That's what I've figured - I know Belfast has evolved a lot (positively) since the 90s.

[Epaminondas]

TUV and Aontu are the obvious ones. Do they intend to only care about North Antrim and Belfast West respectively? If so, their supporters can probably be tossed into the (present) big two camps. SDLP and UUP: they got a higher profile right now cause the SDLP has two incumbents and the UUP are staking their turf early and publicly. But how will their candidates/campaigns/voters behave outside of those specific constituencies? And that's a real question, cause history tells us some will stay in their camps, some will look to the DUP/SF, and some will look to the Alliance. The NI situation is really different on a seat-by-seat basis, which complicates just polling the regional overall.

Why is tactical voting is so much less effective in NI than in England?
It's easy to see a theoretical path where SDLP/SF would carve up West of the Bann, and Alliance/SF dominate the East, yet this is never considered.

[Alcibiades]

Why is tactical voting is so much less effective in NI than in England?
It's easy to see a theoretical path where SDLP/SF would carve up West of the Bann, and Alliance/SF dominate the East, yet this is never considered.

Why would Alliance ever make a deal with Sinn Fein? The core of their support is moderate Unionists who probably hate Sinn Fein even more than the DUP.

[Epaminondas]

Why is tactical voting is so much less effective in NI than in England?
It's easy to see a theoretical path where SDLP/SF would carve up West of the Bann, and Alliance/SF dominate the East, yet this is never considered.

Why would Alliance ever make a deal with Sinn Fein? The core of their support is moderate Unionists who probably hate Sinn Fein even more than the DUP.

If the members of both parties could stomach it, strategic Alliance-SF dropouts would bring down the DUP very effectively since their heartlands have almost no geographic overlap.
e.g. the 3 Antrim seats to Alliance, and East Derry & Upper Bann to Sinn Féin.

[icc]

Why is tactical voting is so much less effective in NI than in England?
It's easy to see a theoretical path where SDLP/SF would carve up West of the Bann, and Alliance/SF dominate the East, yet this is never considered.

Why would Alliance ever make a deal with Sinn Fein? The core of their support is moderate Unionists who probably hate Sinn Fein even more than the DUP.

If the members of both parties could stomach it, strategic Alliance-SF dropouts would bring down the DUP very effectively since their heartlands have almost no geographic overlap.
e.g. the 3 Antrim seats to Alliance, and East Derry & Upper Bann to Sinn Féin.

Neither party would want that, and their voters would not vote in that manner. In particular, the idea that Alliance voters would have *Sinn Féin* as their second choice is utterly bananas.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Yeah I would be an Alliance voter in Northern Ireland and for the idea that there's any circumstances whatsoever in which I'd vote Sinn Fein....LOL!

[ObserverIE]

Yeah I would be an Alliance voter in Northern Ireland and for the idea that there's any circumstances whatsoever in which I'd vote Sinn Fein....LOL!

The reality is that if you were in Northern Ireland you'd be a TUV voter given that George Searight is sadly no longer available.

[ObserverIE]

Why is tactical voting is so much less effective in NI than in England?
It's easy to see a theoretical path where SDLP/SF would carve up West of the Bann, and Alliance/SF dominate the East, yet this is never considered.

Why would Alliance ever make a deal with Sinn Fein? The core of their support is moderate Unionists who probably hate Sinn Fein even more than the DUP.

That might have been true twenty years ago but the median Alliance voter of twenty years ago is not the median Alliance voter of now - predominantly neutral or very soft nationalist on the border issue but for whom it's not a priority, and closer to the SDLP than to any of the other parties. As far as tactical voting goes, it's not as if Claire Hanna's majority last time was predominantly based on SDLP votes.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Yeah I would be an Alliance voter in Northern Ireland and for the idea that there's any circumstances whatsoever in which I'd vote Sinn Fein....LOL!

The reality is that if you were in Northern Ireland you'd be a TUV voter given that George Searight is sadly no longer available.

I would never vote for a pro-Brexit party.

[ObserverIE]

Yeah I would be an Alliance voter in Northern Ireland and for the idea that there's any circumstances whatsoever in which I'd vote Sinn Fein....LOL!

The reality is that if you were in Northern Ireland you'd be a TUV voter given that George Searight is sadly no longer available.

I would never vote for a pro-Brexit party.

The intersection of the Venn diagram between the sets "pro-Brexit" and "rabidly anti-Catholic" is an empty set. You have to go with one or the other.

[Oryxslayer]

Yeah I would be an Alliance voter in Northern Ireland and for the idea that there's any circumstances whatsoever in which I'd vote Sinn Fein....LOL!

The reality is that if you were in Northern Ireland you'd be a TUV voter given that George Searight is sadly no longer available.

I would never vote for a pro-Brexit party.

The intersection of the Venn diagram between the sets "pro-Brexit" and "rabidly anti-Catholic" is an empty set. You have to go with one or the other.

You mean pro-Remain/EU. Pro-Leave/Brexit and anti-Catholic is the default unionist position.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Yeah I would be an Alliance voter in Northern Ireland and for the idea that there's any circumstances whatsoever in which I'd vote Sinn Fein....LOL!

The reality is that if you were in Northern Ireland you'd be a TUV voter given that George Searight is sadly no longer available.

I would never vote for a pro-Brexit party.

The intersection of the Venn diagram between the sets "pro-Brexit" and "rabidly anti-Catholic" is an empty set. You have to go with one or the other.

There must be some people who listen to Tooth & Nail/Solid State bands in Northern Ireland, after all there are many in Britain and such bands have toured and played there, in fact a guy from Life In Your Way even said their most popular song "Salty Grave" (the last song they played at Furnace Fest 2022) was about how they were on a flight to tour in Europe and he fell asleep and had a dream about the plane crashing but he came to peace with returning to God at that time. And it wouldn't make sense for such people to be pro-Brexit as almost all who listened to such bands in Britain are anti-Brexit. So there's got to be someone like me.

[ObserverIE]

Yeah I would be an Alliance voter in Northern Ireland and for the idea that there's any circumstances whatsoever in which I'd vote Sinn Fein....LOL!

The reality is that if you were in Northern Ireland you'd be a TUV voter given that George Searight is sadly no longer available.

I would never vote for a pro-Brexit party.

The intersection of the Venn diagram between the sets "pro-Brexit" and "rabidly anti-Catholic" is an empty set. You have to go with one or the other.

You mean pro-Remain/EU. Pro-Leave/Brexit and anti-Catholic is the default unionist position.

My bad.

[Epaminondas]

Why would Alliance ever make a deal with Sinn Fein? The core of their support is moderate Unionists who probably hate Sinn Fein even more than the DUP.

That might have been true twenty years ago but the median Alliance voter of twenty years ago is not the median Alliance voter of now - predominantly neutral or very soft nationalist on the border issue but for whom it's not a priority, and closer to the SDLP than to any of the other parties. As far as tactical voting goes, it's not as if Claire Hanna's majority last time was predominantly based on SDLP votes.

Exactly. This position is close to the nationalist I am this election - Alliance is a good governance party, not a true unionist party, and it is the only group with a shout at converting the DUP heartland.
SLDP or SF are wasted votes on the eastern seaboard.

Regarding Claire Hanna (57% in 2019), Alliance was down 4 in this seat, yet up 9 across NI: 13 points of strategic voting for the SDLP?

[AustralianSwingVoter]

The great thing about STV is we know exactly the preferences of voters!
https://www.niassembly.gov.uk/globalassets/documents/raise/publications/2017-2022/2022/2522.pdf
Alliance voters overwhelmingly flow to the SDLP, with the rest scattering pretty evenly.

[CumbrianLefty]

A bit surprised it is that overwhelmingly SDLP, you might think the UUP would do a bit better there.

[Alcibiades]

That might have been true twenty years ago but the median Alliance voter of twenty years ago is not the median Alliance voter of now - predominantly neutral or very soft nationalist on the border issue but for whom it's not a priority, and closer to the SDLP than to any of the other parties. As far as tactical voting goes, it's not as if Claire Hanna's majority last time was predominantly based on SDLP votes.

In all of the seats Alliance could conceivably win at this election, their challengers are the DUP (or in the case of North Down, a DUP-backed independent). Yes, they will be grateful for as many nationalist tactical votes as they can get, but at the end of the day, these are all seats with a clear Protestant majority, and accordingly you need to get a lot of unionist votes if you want to win them. A pact with Sinn Fein would be the safest way for Alliance to ensure they didn’t win a single Westminster seat.

I don’t think your point about the SDLP is a counter to what I said (except that yes, I was admittedly perhaps wrong to assert that Alliance’s core supporters were necessarily unionists — of course the ‘moderate’ part still stands); they are, needless to say, a very different kettle of fish from Sinn Fein, especially someone like Claire Hanna, who has been extremely critical of the more ostentatiously nationalist elements within her own party, let alone Sinn Fein.

[Alcibiades]

A bit surprised it is that overwhelmingly SDLP, you might think the UUP would do a bit better there.

Those numbers also show that the UUP are the number one source of Alliance transfers, so the relationship between the two obviously does matter, even if it mostly runs in one direction; and again, it very much suggests that in this Westminster election, moderate unionists lending them their vote will be vital if Alliance want to expand their number of seats.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

A bit surprised it is that overwhelmingly SDLP, you might think the UUP would do a bit better there.

Those numbers also show that the UUP are the number one source of Alliance transfers, so the relationship between the two obviously does matter, even if it mostly runs in one direction; and again, it very much suggests that in this Westminster election, moderate unionists lending them their vote will be vital if Alliance want to expand their number of seats.

The order of candidates elected/eliminated would also somewhat influence it, as votes can only transfer to candidates still in the race. But the broad strokes of transfers are pretty clear.

The smaller transfers are a rich source of comedy, as always in preferential systems. Only four of 15k DUP votes transferring to Sinn Fein is hilarious, as is the 25 votes who transferred from the TUV. And I’d love to meet the 114 people who voted 1 Sinn Fein 2 DUP.

The UUP having the most votes transferred (42k!) and the most votes transfer within ticket (nearly 14k!) is a great demonstration that they keep running far too many candidates and keep hurting from leakage. Every other party (especially Sinn Fein) is far more disciplined in this regard.

[JimJamUK]

The UUP having the most votes transferred (42k!) and the most votes transfer within ticket (nearly 14k!) is a great demonstration that they keep running far too many candidates and keep hurting from leakage. Every other party (especially Sinn Fein) is far more disciplined in this regard.

It also shows that a lot of their remaining vote is personal and wanders off when they are eliminated or no longer stand for the party (northern FF 😋)

[JimJamUK]

Pat Cullen, the semi-notable leader of the British nurses union is likely to stand for Sinn Fein in Fermanagh and South Tyrone. Quite why she go from a position of influence (especially with a change of government imminent) to standing on a policy of doing nothing is unclear.

[Epaminondas]

The UUP having the most votes transferred (42k!) and the most votes transfer within ticket (nearly 14k!) is a great demonstration that they keep running far too many candidates and keep hurting from leakage. Every other party (especially Sinn Fein) is far more disciplined in this regard.

In the 2020 GE Sinn Féin even went too far, misjudging the mood. Under-running cost them at least 5 seats (in particular not standing anyone in Cork NW).

[AustralianSwingVoter]

The UUP having the most votes transferred (42k!) and the most votes transfer within ticket (nearly 14k!) is a great demonstration that they keep running far too many candidates and keep hurting from leakage. Every other party (especially Sinn Fein) is far more disciplined in this regard.

In the 2020 GE Sinn Féin even went too far, misjudging the mood. Under-running cost them at least 5 seats (in particular not standing anyone in Cork NW).

Yes they’ve had similar results in NI council elections before. Their strategists seem to be content with their votes electing an ally rather than running too many and risking a cutup.