French National Assembly Elections, 06/30-07/07

[LabourJersey]

On June 30, how early/how late will it take for the results to be announced?

The seven day turnaround for the the second round suggests this has to be quick, but I'm not sure what's "quick" in a French sense.

[Antonio the Sixth]

On June 30, how early/how late will it take for the results to be announced?

The seven day turnaround for the the second round suggests this has to be quick, but I'm not sure what's "quick" in a French sense.

In French elections you typically get a pretty accurate projection at 8pm and then the actual counting takes a couple hours. By midnight or so everything should be in.

However, it is worth noting that the short delays and the summer vacations means that a lot of precincts are missing personnel and facing other organizational challenges (I've volunteered to help out in my hometown if they need an extra pair of hands). This could conceivably be a problem and cause unusual delays, but even then, I'm confident we'll have final results by Monday at the latest.

[Oliver]

Political nuances / labels

How are those political "nuances" assigned to candidates (and lists in regional and local elections)?

Can candidates officially be supported by more than one political party?

And do candidates have to declare declare their party affiliation and is the political affiliation shown on the ballot paper?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Flamby living his best life

https://twitter.com/FlBuisson/status/1804458888483185002

[xelas81]

Flamby living his best life

https://twitter.com/FlBuisson/status/1804458888483185002

Straightforward From Here
Flamby becomes face of Non-Mélenchon NFP
Flamby wins 2027 Presidential election
2031: Flamby has negative 90% approval rating.
But it is irrelevant because French AI company Mistral releases AGI before 2032 election.
 

[Hindsight was 2020]

So what’s the most likely outcome at this point?

[MaxQue]

It's hard to understand what Macron's plan was by dissolving the National Assembly when he did.

He has not, he is being manipulated by his far-right advisors.

[lfromnj]

Virgin Sunak telling half the Tories about the election date so they could bet on it vs Chad Macron not even telling his PM

[Sir John Johns]

I forgot about Gilles Le Gendre, the leader of the LREM parliamentary in 2018-20 and until now a loyal lackey of the president, who wasn’t renominated this year by Renew but is still running as a dissident candidate in the second constituency of Paris. He is facing the official Renew candidate, Jean Laussucq, a LR or ex-LR municipal councilor who got nominated thanks to the support of Rachida Dati, the justice minister under Sarko and leader of the Parisian LR until January 2024 when she betrayed her own party to enter the Attal government as the culture minister, a move seen at the time as a way to improve her chances in the next municipal elections. Laussucq is apparently also endorsed by LR but there is also (of course) two LR-adjacent dissident candidates.

https://twitter.com/S_LeGoff/status/1804493792986178020

Well, Le Gendre has just received the support of a historical Macronist, Richard Ferrand (first parliamentarian to rally Macron and ex-general secretary and parliamentary leader of LREM) as well as Agnès Buzyn (health minister under Philippe and the Macronist candidate for mayor of Paris in 2020) and Florence Parly (defense minister under Philippe).

Yet another sign of divisions inside Macron’s party as you've got two ex parliamentary leaders defying the official line (I think Ferrand is also still holding a leadership post in Renew). Macron is trully on track of destroying absolutely every French political party, including his own, but the one he was supposed to destroy: the RN.

[CumbrianLefty]

It's hard to understand what Macron's plan was by dissolving the National Assembly when he did.

He felt the need to "do something" after the dire European results?

[Sir John Johns]

So what’s the most likely outcome at this point?

A RN majority or hung parliament IF polls are right. But there are a lot of uncertainties, notably about the accuracy of polls and their models to get parliamentary projection (the electoral offer is very different from one constituency to another one and the profile of the candidate still matters even if not as much as previously: in my own one, for example, no LR nor Reconquête candidates but a dissident PS one with a strong local implantation in addition to the Macronista, NFP, RN and LO candidates), turnout, runoff dynamics (usually different from the first round ones: for example, in 2007, the UMP obtained a surprisingly reduced majority compared to what first round results would have suggested), number of triangulaires in the runoff and whether Renew or NFP third-placed would withdrew or not in the runoff in favor of the non-RN best-placed candidate in order to prevent a victory of the RN candidate.

[Agafin]

It's hard to understand what Macron's plan was by dissolving the National Assembly when he did.

He felt the need to "do something" after the dire European results?

I mean, it was a democratic decision so I'm not criticizing him for it, but he was under absolutely no obligation to do it. Another leader might have waited to see if things would get better especially as the current legislature still had 3 years to go. Can you imagine Trudeau calling a general election because of a series of poor by-election results? It'd be a similar thing.

[Oryxslayer]

It's hard to understand what Macron's plan was by dissolving the National Assembly when he did.

He felt the need to "do something" after the dire European results?

I mean, it was a democratic decision so I'm not criticizing him for it, but he was under absolutely no obligation to do it. Another leader might have waited to see if things would get better especially as the current legislature still had 3 years to go. Can you imagine Trudeau calling a general election because of a series of poor by-election results? It'd be a similar thing.

The big difference is of course Trudeau, Boris/Truss/Sunak, Scholz, or someone else in a similar position would personally suffer consequences for such a decision. But Macron really can't, unless he chooses to resign for whatever personal reason. So he can gamble that RN will blow up its short-term reputation like every previous legislative cohabitator, and they may not even get a result comparable to those past majorities. Or he can just call another election in 2025. Presidential powers here are supreme, thank to De Gaulle.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Flamby living his best life

https://twitter.com/FlBuisson/status/1804458888483185002

what is it with unpopular ex-european leaders and living their best lives while everything falls apart around them?
https://twitter.com/DominicPenna/status/1584202221646118912

[GM Team Member and Acting PPT WB]

https://twitter.com/PaulLarrouturou/status/1803851311861108864

Édouard Philippe saying that Macron ‘has killed the presidential majority’ and that it’s time to ‘move on’ and ‘create a new parliamentary majority working on a different basis that the previous one’. He is breaking with Macron and already planning his 2027 presidential bid.

Shortly thereafter, Bruno Le Maire, the finance minister, criticized in strong terms in a TV interview the inner circle of Macron.

The parquet floors of ministries and palaces of the Republic are full of woodlice. There always have been woodlice, it is part of the French political life… They are in the parquet floors, in the parquet grooves. It is very hard to get rid of them. The best is to not listening to them and remaining at your place whether one is president, prime minister, minister and taking decisions in full knowledge.

The unnamed targets of Le Maire are Pierre Charron and Bruno Roger-Petit, two presidential advisers who reportedly encouraged Macron to dissolve the National Assembly. Charron is a former Sarkozyist senator for Paris currently acting as an unofficial presidential adviser. He is mostly known in the press for engaging in gossip and is a worthy representative of the Parisian Right, a permanent laughing stock of French politics since the Tiberi era which is dedicating more time for petty feuds and personal rivalries (case in point: in the 2023 senatorial election, the official LR list in Paris faced two dissident lists, one led by Charron who didn’t get reelected) than trying to constitute an effective challenge to the PS dominance in the capital. Roger-Petit is a second-tier and fairly mediocre journalist who started as a PS supporter but became later a Macron sycophant and was rewarded with a job of ‘presidential adviser for remembrance’. He is said to be very close to Brigitte Macron and to have inspired the reactionary turn of the Macron presidency, enjoying ties with far-right circles, notably Pascal Praud, the star columnist on Bolloré’s CNews TV station who, according to Le Monde, was informed by Roger-Petit about the dissolution even before the prime minister.

The roles of Charron and Roger-Petit may be exaggerated (firstly by Charron and Roger-Petit themselves) but the fact such political mediocrities have integrated the presidential inner circle and could influence political decisions is already very telling and strongly reminiscent of the Ancien Régime monarchy when politics were partly decided by courtiers and royal mistresses.

Anyway, there is a lot of resentment against Macron among the ranks of Renew parliamentarians, unhappy about the unannounced and clearly unprepared dissolution and about the disconnection and authoritarianism of the president who has snubbed the parliament all along his tenure in office. In the case of a (likely) electoral defeat, the leadership of Macron (barred from running in 2027) over what remains of Renew will be strongly challenged by Philippe, Le Maire, Attal, Bayrou and maybe Darmanin (who is apparently uninterested into remaining interior minister after the legislative elections). More internal squabbling in sight.

This hasn’t been yet mentioned but the candidate fielded by the NFP in the Conflans-Sainte-Honorine constituency (on the PP quota) is Aurélien Rousseau, a former chief of staff for Élisabeth Borne and one of the architects of the pensions reform. Subsequently the health minister, Rousseau resigned from that office in December 2023 to protest the immigration bill. His defection is yet another sign of discontent with the leadership and political orientation taken by Macron.


As for the campaign itself, Macron has decided to double down on his Boomer anti-youth populism, promising a revaluation of pensions (when pensions are already constituting one of the largest government expenditure and as pensioners have been entirely spared by the pension reform which is only penalizing younger generations), even harsher penalties for unemployed workers (the third reform of unemployment insurance in four years), prohibition of cell phones for children under 11 and social networks for teenagers under 15 (good luck trying to implement these ones considering they can’t even regulated mainstream TV/radio channels), compulsory school uniform by 2026, the generalization and mandatory character of the expensive and useless ‘national universal service’ (a cheap civic service for youth that has already faced various scandals of harassment, racism and physical harm against its first volunteers) and the promise of ‘excellence for everybody at school’ when the education system has suffered from repeated budget cuts and chronic understaffing and has been disorganized by a series of hasty and ill-prepared reforms. As mentioned, the simplification of administrative procedures for change of gender self-identification, which was part of Macron’s 2022 platform, is now derided as an abomination because throwing under the bus minorities for short-term political gains is apparently the new cool in French politics.

That’s pretty much for the platform as the main strategy is to contrast the supposed budgetary seriousness and competence of the current government with the economic incompetence and inexperience of the RN and the unrealistic and arch-expansive platform of the NFP. A risky choice when the 2023 budget deficit has been estimated at 5.6% against the 4.9% initially predicted by Le Maire and when the debt of France has been downgraded by Standard & Poor’s at the beginning of the month. But, even more, the government can boasted about its economic successes as much as it wants, on the ground the average voter is still experiencing increases in the prices of basic necessities, the closure of public services, the deterioration of education and hospitals systems, the excessive delays to get an appointment with specialists and the unfortunate financial consequences of stricter roadworthiness tests and ill-conducted energy renovation programs for households.

there goes the point of "Macron's coalition is the only one without significant infighting"

[Antonio the Sixth]

Flamby living his best life

https://twitter.com/FlBuisson/status/1804458888483185002

what is it with unpopular ex-european leaders and living their best lives while everything falls apart around them?
https://twitter.com/DominicPenna/status/1584202221646118912

I mean, in Flamby's defense, he is campaigning here, so at least you can't accuse him of walking away from the fray.

[Storr]

Flamby living his best life

https://twitter.com/FlBuisson/status/1804458888483185002

Reminds me of Bob Hawke:

[Logical]

Ipsos

RN+UXD : 35,5%
NFP : 29,5%
Macronismo : 19,5%
LR : 7%
REC : 2%


Turnout : 62%

[pikachu]

Flamby living his best life

https://twitter.com/FlBuisson/status/1804458888483185002

what is it with unpopular ex-european leaders and living their best lives while everything falls apart around them?
https://twitter.com/DominicPenna/status/1584202221646118912

I mean, in Flamby's defense, he is campaigning here, so at least you can't accuse him of walking away from the fray.

Has his reputation improved post-presidency? This is v America-brained, but I couldn't imagine the GOP ever wanting GWB to campaign for them.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

Flamby living his best life

https://twitter.com/FlBuisson/status/1804458888483185002

what is it with unpopular ex-european leaders and living their best lives while everything falls apart around them?
https://twitter.com/DominicPenna/status/1584202221646118912

I mean, in Flamby's defense, he is campaigning here, so at least you can't accuse him of walking away from the fray.

Has his reputation improved post-presidency? This is v America-brained, but I couldn't imagine the GOP ever wanting GWB to campaign for them.

He is a candidate.

[wnwnwn]

I think Hollande's campaing overall helps. It makes NUPES be seen as a big coalition where moderates can take a place, and no one expects him to run things. It´s like if Powell had run for the House in 2012 under the GOP.
How do you think very pro-Israel jews "concerned about inmigration" will vote?

[Logical]

Elabe

RN+UXD : 36%
NFP : 27%
Macronista : 20%
LR+DVD : 10%
DVG : 2%
REC : 1,5%

Seats
RN+UXD : 250-280
NFP : 150-170
Macronista : 90-110
LR+DVD : 35-45
Others : 10-12

Turnout : 62%

[Flyersfan232]

I think Hollande's campaing overall helps. It makes NUPES be seen as a big coalition where moderates can take a place, and no one expects him to run things. It´s like if Powell had run for the House in 2012 under the GOP.
How do you think very pro-Israel jews "concerned about inmigration" will vote?

no it don’t guy left office with 4% approval

[jaichind]

Elabe
 
Seats
RN+UXD : 250-280
NFP : 150-170
Macronista : 90-110
LR+DVD : 35-45
Others : 10-12

Turnout : 62%

Sounds like the 2022 results with the roles of RN and ENS reversed and LR splitting into pro-RN and anti-RN factors.  I wish these were going to be the results but I doubt RN will do this well.   The second round tactical vote will go against the perceived front-runner.  That hurt ENS in 2022 and this time it will hurt RN.

[adma]

Elabe
 
Seats
RN+UXD : 250-280
NFP : 150-170
Macronista : 90-110
LR+DVD : 35-45
Others : 10-12

Turnout : 62%

Sounds like the 2022 results with the roles of RN and ENS reversed and LR splitting into pro-RN and anti-RN factors.  I wish these were going to be the results but I doubt RN will do this well.   The second round tactical vote will go against the perceived front-runner.  That hurt ENS in 2022 and this time it will hurt RN.

To some degree, it hurt LREM in 2017 as well (i.e. there was a lot of presumption that they'd be headed for an even more top-heavy legislative landslide than they managed).

Not to mention that the nature of the frontrunner might lead to a lot of reawakened "cordon sanitaire" spot strategic thinking...