French National Assembly Elections, 06/30-07/07

[Storr]

[Storr]

What do the numbers in the thread title mean?

Presumably the date of the first round and then the date of the runoff. Months first then days.

Those dates confirmed, according to Politico EU:

"French President Emmanuel Macron dissolved parliament on Sunday, following his party’s crushing defeat at the hands of the far-right National Rally in the European election.

The first round will take place on June 30. The second will be on July 7."

[Storr]

Almost seems like Macron completely lost it. This is a massive gamble and regardless which realistic outcome there is, he will almost certainly end up as a lame duck after the election

"Macron is potentially opening the door for the extreme right to gain power in France. Imho, his absolute over-confidence in his party's ability to win a majority in new elections seems pretty arrogant and detached from reality. The possibility of a right-wing government led by the RN is described as a nightmare scenario for the entire EU. That said, I have little confidence in the left getting its act together and offer a real and pragmatic alternative. Especially since the French left seems so divided. Dark times ahead it seems.

This a decent (I guess) positive spin on Macron's decision:

"Macron's decision to dissolve the assembly and call new elections is smart and the right move.  Either the incoherence of the RN program becomes clear during the campaign and it loses the election.  Or the RN wins, gets to govern and quickly makes a mess of it. In this case, we get two bad years, compared to five if they won the 2027 elections.

My thoughts on this are:
1) It's three years, not two until the Presidential election in April 2027
2) what if RN wins in July and public mood ends up being "RN actually isn't that bad at governing", so Le Pen wins in 2027? That isn't an implausible scenario and Macron will have sacrificed three years of governance (having the Presidency + National Assembly minority government) for nothing.

[Storr]

'Union de l'extrême droite'

Lmao.

'Union of the Extreme Right' sounds like the name of an authoritarian government you'd find in a bootleg video game. Something menacing enough to indicate that it's the game's antagonising force, yet vague enough to avoid copyright infringement.

[Storr]

Flamby living his best life

https://twitter.com/FlBuisson/status/1804458888483185002

Reminds me of Bob Hawke:

[Storr]

"Marine Le Pen party’s security adviser is an alleged Russian agent"

"Ms Volokhova became a French citizen in 2020 despite a leaked report from the DGSI, France’s domestic intelligence service, that identified her as a suspected “agent of influence” working for Vladimir Putin’s Russia."

https://archive.ph/2024.06.27-100934/https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/06/26/marine-le-pen-russian-dual-national-exmodel-party-adviser/#selection-2775.4-2775.70

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/TheEconomist/status/1806317338439852073

[Storr]

Harris/Toluna projects final turnout will stand at 69,7%.

17:00 turnout being the highest since 1986 is interesting. This is because, as I just learned, 1986 was the one election during the 5th Republic where proportional representation was used, due Mitterand choosing to bring it back. Thanks to this change, one Jean-Marie Le Pen was elected to the National Assembly for the first and only time as a member of FN.

[Storr]

TF1 Seat projection, using first round results:

240-270 RN
180-200 NFP
    60-90 Ensemble
    30-50 Republicans

So chaos it is. Still better than RN willing a majority, at least.

[Storr]

"Emmanuel Macron calls for a “broad, clearly democratic and republican gathering” against the RN
In a statement sent to the media, the head of state believes that the high participation shows a desire of the French to “clarify the political situation”. “Their democratic choice obliges us ,” he said.

“Faced with the National Rally, the time has come for a large, clearly Democratic and Republican gathering for the second round ,” he called, regarding withdrawals in view of the second round in the event of a potential victory of RN candidates. Candidates qualified for the second round have until 6 p.m. Tuesday to validate their registration at the prefecture."

https://www.lemonde.fr/politique/live/2024/06/30/en-direct-resultats-legislatives-2024-paroles-d-electeurs-c-est-tellement-important-cette-fois_6245488_823448.html?#id-1643608

[Storr]

If turnout breaks 70% then ~18% of the vote is enough to reach the second round. We might even see some quadranglar elections.

...or even quadrangulars, yeah. In constituencies with a strong LR incumbent but sizable bases for the three main blocs, that's conceivable.

"From 65 to 85 elected in the first round, between 285 and 315 triangular in the second round, according to Ipsos estimates

This first estimate by Ipsos Talan for France Télévisions, Radio France, France 24/RFI, LCP also predicts 150 to 170 duels. The RN would qualify in 390 to 430 constituencies, the NFP in 370 to 410 constituencies, Ensemble in 290 to 330."

https://www.lemonde.fr/politique/live/2024/06/30/en-direct-resultats-legislatives-2024-paroles-d-electeurs-c-est-tellement-important-cette-fois_6245488_823448.html?#id-1643668

[Storr]

"Republicans do not give voting instructions for the second round

"We are fighting the excesses of a far left dominated by La France Insoumise, which wants to demolish our institutions, deconstruct our civilization, and which represents an absolute danger for our country." the Les Républicains party said in a statement. "The National Rally is not the solution for France either, because its demagogic program will lead to chaos and the impoverishment of our country." the text added, affirming that it would let "the French express themselves in conscience.""

https://www.lemonde.fr/politique/live/2024/06/30/en-direct-resultats-legislatives-2024-paroles-d-electeurs-c-est-tellement-important-cette-fois_6245488_823448.html?#id-1643757

[Storr]

"Edouard Philippe calls on the Horizons candidates who came third to withdraw to avoid the election of RN or LFI deputies"

https://www.lemonde.fr/politique/live/2024/06/30/en-direct-resultats-legislatives-2024-paroles-d-electeurs-c-est-tellement-important-cette-fois_6245488_823448.html?#id-1644128

[Storr]

"Edouard Philippe calls on the Horizons candidates who came third to withdraw to avoid the election of RN or LFI deputies"

https://www.lemonde.fr/politique/live/2024/06/30/en-direct-resultats-legislatives-2024-paroles-d-electeurs-c-est-tellement-important-cette-fois_6245488_823448.html?#id-1644128

There we go:

"Ensemble calls on its candidates who came 3rd to withdraw “for the benefit of candidates able to beat the RN and with whom we share the essential: the values ​​of the Republic”"

https://www.lemonde.fr/politique/live/2024/06/30/en-direct-resultats-legislatives-2024-paroles-d-electeurs-c-est-tellement-important-cette-fois_6245488_823448.html?#id-1644218

[Storr]

Nord-20 96% counted
Florquin (RN) 49.93%
Roussel (NFP, PCF leader) 31.4%
Vervandier (ENS) 10,72%

"“Many of you will be disappointed by the national results and also the results in this constituency where, as in many constituencies in our department, the National Rally candidate won in the first round, achieving 50.3%. votes ,” declared Mr. Roussel."

https://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2024/06/30/fabien-roussel-patron-du-parti-communiste-elimine-des-le-premier-tour-des-elections-legislatives_6245602_823448.html

[Storr]

"Republicans do not give voting instructions for the second round

"We are fighting the excesses of a far left dominated by La France Insoumise, which wants to demolish our institutions, deconstruct our civilization, and which represents an absolute danger for our country." the Les Républicains party said in a statement. "The National Rally is not the solution for France either, because its demagogic program will lead to chaos and the impoverishment of our country." the text added, affirming that it would let "the French express themselves in conscience.""

https://www.lemonde.fr/politique/live/2024/06/30/en-direct-resultats-legislatives-2024-paroles-d-electeurs-c-est-tellement-important-cette-fois_6245488_823448.html?#id-1643757

"From Nice, where he is a candidate for re-election, the contested president of the Republicans, Eric Ciotti, welcomed a result which is "already a huge success" after the coalition he formed with the RN obtained 34% of the votes. “The unprecedented and historic union that we built with Jordan Bardella put an end to too many years of inaction which relegated the right to the role of helpless spectator of French decline ,” he added. For the outgoing MP, “victory is in sight to bring Jordan Bardella to Matignon” , before calling on LR leaders and voters to “follow the path of unity that [he] opened” .

"The Republicans cannot abstain in this second round, they must participate in the victory of the entire right ," he continued, while the LR leaders, who opposed Mr. Ciotti in his alliance with the RN, refuse to give voting instructions. "The situation is serious tonight, France, democracy and our institutions could be in danger tomorrow if the extreme left were to seize power in an unnatural alliance ," he warned."

https://www.lemonde.fr/politique/live/2024/06/30/en-direct-resultats-legislatives-2024-paroles-d-electeurs-c-est-tellement-important-cette-fois_6245488_823448.html?#id-1644370

[Storr]

So what happens now? Macron resigns?

French politics is weird and confusing.

The second round happens on July 7th.

[Storr]

"Gabriel Attal's withdrawal instruction also applies to LFI candidates "compatible with republican values"

Following Gabriel Attal's statement calling on Ensemble candidates to withdraw in three-way races where they would be in third position, in order to avoid a victory for the National Rally (RN) candidate, the campaign team clarified that this instruction also applies when it comes to withdrawing in favour of a La France Insoumise candidate.

However, the presidential party will look at the profile of the candidate within the "insoumis" family. "The LFI are clearly enemies of the values ​​of the Republic ," says a campaign executive from the presidential camp. It will therefore be a question of looking at whether the "insoumis" candidate is "compatible with republican values ​​on parliamentarianism, universalism, anti-Semitism ," they specify at the Elysée.

For example, the Renaissance candidate Albane Branlant is withdrawing in favor of François Ruffin in the Somme. On the other hand, this instruction will not apply to a candidate with the profile of that of Raphaël Arnault, a “rebellious” candidate listed as S, in Avignon."

https://www.lemonde.fr/politique/live/2024/06/30/en-direct-resultats-legislatives-2024-la-gauche-appelle-ses-candidats-arrives-troisiemes-a-se-desister-pour-faire-battre-le-rn-le-camp-presidentiel-reste-flou_6245488_823448.html?#id-1645210

[Storr]

Speaking of immigration:

"Having qualified for the second round, Secretary of State for Citizenship Sabrina Agresti-Roubache withdraws to block the RN

In a Marseille constituency largely won over by the RN candidate, Monique Griseti (45%), the Secretary of State for Citizenship Sabrina Agresti-Roubache chose to withdraw, after qualifying in third place (23.1%) for the second round. She will support the diverse left-NFP candidate Pascaline Lécorché, who came second (28%)."

https://www.lemonde.fr/politique/live/2024/06/30/en-direct-resultats-legislatives-2024-la-gauche-appelle-ses-candidats-arrives-troisiemes-a-se-desister-pour-faire-battre-le-rn-le-camp-presidentiel-reste-flou_6245488_823448.html?#id-1645836

[Storr]

"The results of the constituencies of French people living outside France have finally been published by the Ministry of the Interior.

In the 1st constituency  (North America) , Roland Lescure (Renaissance-Ensemble) qualifies with 38.84%, against Oussama Laraichi (EELV-NFP) with 36.12%. Jennifer Adam (RN) is notably eliminated with 10.70%.

In the 2nd constituency  (Central America, South America, Caribbean) , Sergio Coronado (EELV-NFP) qualifies with 36.16%, against Eléonore Caroit (Renaissance-Ensemble) with 33.49%. Marie-Nathalie Goncalves (RN) is notably eliminated with 13.28%.

In the 3rd constituency  (Northern Europe)  : Charlotte Minvielle (EELV-NFP) qualifies with 39.22%, against Vincent Caure (Renaissance-Ensemble) with 39.13%. Sophie Charbonnet (RN) is notably eliminated with 6.57%.

In the 4th constituency  (Benelux)  : Cécilia Gondard (PS-NFP) qualifies with 40.59%, against Pieyre-Alexandre Anglade (Renaissance-Ensemble) with 33.17%. Charlotte Beaufils (RN) is notably eliminated with 7.86%.

In the 5th constituency  (Iberian Peninsula)  : Stéphane Vojetta (Renaissance-Divers Centre) qualifies with 33.68%, against Maxime Da Silva (LFI-NFP) with 26.18%. Johana Maurel (RN) is notably eliminated with 19.49%.

In the 6th constituency  (Switzerland and Liechtenstein)  : Marc Ferracci (Renaissance-Ensemble) qualifies with 40.54%, against Halima Delimi (PS-NFP) with 30.81%. Déborah Merceron (RN) is notably eliminated with 14.51%.

In the 7th constituency  (Central Europe and Balkans)  : Frédéric Petit (MoDem-Ensemble) qualifies with 37.76%, facing Asma Rharmaoui-Claquin (LFI-NFP) with 32.66%. Mathilde Naveys-Dumas (RN) was notably eliminated with 7.78%.

In the 8th constituency  (Cyprus, Greece, Israel, Italy, Malta, Turkey and Palestinian Territories)  : Meyer Habib (LR) qualifies with 35.58%, against Caroline Yadan (Renaissance-Ensemble) with 24.18%. In particular, Yaël Lerer (Balad-NFP) is eliminated with 23.14%.

In the 9th constituency  (Maghreb and West Africa)  : Karim Ben Cheïkh (EELV-NFP) qualifies with 51.57% (but less than 25% of registered voters), against Samira Djouadi (Renaissance-Ensemble) with 15.70%. Elodie Charron (RN) is notably eliminated with 10.64%.

In the 10th constituency  (Middle East, Central, Eastern and Southern Africa + Benin, Ghana, Togo and Nigeria)  : Elsa Di Meo (PS-NFP) qualifies with 32.52%, against Amélia Lakrafi (Renaissance-Enselble) with 31.82%. Jean De Veron (LR-RN) is notably eliminated with 17.16%.

In the 11th constituency  (Belarus, Moldova, Ukraine, Russia, Caucasus countries, most of Asia and Oceania)  : Anne Genetet (Renaissance-Ensemble) qualifies with 39.94%, against Franck Pajot (PS- NFP) with 29.78%. In particular, Pierre Brochet (RN) was eliminated with 15.30%."