United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

[Torrain]

Credit to Shipman - he’s self-aware. Mad how far we’ve come in three years - and how far some have fallen.
https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1445711840378511360?lang=en
https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1808754800550354952

[MABA 2020]

It's Election Day at last, been nervously awaiting this for the last two years but it seems like it'll be a good day

[YL]

Dawn of the final day: (possibly) my last canvassing update

I spent one more week in the constituency I’ve been canvassing for most of the campaign, then moved to a completely different area.

In the first, I ended the period not having met a single person who was willing to say outright that they were voting Conservative (though I did meet some fairly obvious Conservative voters, I think this is notable in itself). The LDs will easily flip this seat and have almost certainly over-targeted it (deliberately, IMO. More to reveal after e-day!).

In the second - a formerly Eurosceptic area - I met a few openly Tory/Reform voters. The contrast made me a little nervous at first, but I’ve learnt just the electorate is (mostly) just more forthright here. This seat (and others) deserved more resources from the national party, but I still expect a relatively comfortable flip. I’ll be doing some polling day work there tomorrow and will try to keep you posted.

South Cambs and Ely & East respectively?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Dawn of the final day: (possibly) my last canvassing update

I spent one more week in the constituency I’ve been canvassing for most of the campaign, then moved to a completely different area.

In the first, I ended the period not having met a single person who was willing to say outright that they were voting Conservative (though I did meet some fairly obvious Conservative voters, I think this is notable in itself). The LDs will easily flip this seat and have almost certainly over-targeted it (deliberately, IMO. More to reveal after e-day!).

In the second - a formerly Eurosceptic area - I met a few openly Tory/Reform voters. The contrast made me a little nervous at first, but I’ve learnt just the electorate is (mostly) just more forthright here. This seat (and others) deserved more resources from the national party, but I still expect a relatively comfortable flip. I’ll be doing some polling day work there tomorrow and will try to keep you posted.

South Cambs and Ely & East respectively?

First seat is in Cambridgeshire, second is in the South West.

Labour have stepped back a bit in all three of the constituencies around Cambridge city - activists who put a South Cambs/Ely/St Neots postcode into the Labour site are told to go to Peterborough. That means there should be more than one opening in this region, which is reflected in the MRP but may well be (partially) wasted.

Won’t specify more than this til polls close.

[afleitch]

Just voted.

Surprisingly brisk for 8.00 am.

[Torrain]

Labour have stepped back a bit in all three of the constituencies around Cambridge city - activists who put a South Cambs/Ely/St Neots postcode into the Labour site are told to go to Peterborough. That means there should be more than one opening in this region, which is reflected in the MRP but may well be (partially) wasted.

A question for another day (possibly another month/year), but I’m curious whether there’s any jumpiness within local Labour circles over whether a Lib Dem breakthrough across Cambridgeshire makes the city itself more vulnerable for the next cycle.

[Blair]

Endorsement wise it’s telling how strong the Arts are for labour considering everything; clearly a sign of how the sector has been treated!

People in the creative sector, as a rule, are left-wing on average.

Use to be a relatively right wing profession- at least actors!

[Cassius]

Complete shambles at my polling station, as there were two polling stations in one and they mixed up all of the voters into the wrong queues.

[Woke Frenzy]

When do the polls close?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The final Ipsos poll is out and it is a curious one: Lab 37, Con 18, Ref 15, LDem 11, Greens 9, SNP 6

[afleitch]

The final Ipsos poll is out and it is a curious one: Lab 37, Con 18, Ref 15, LDem 11, Greens 9, SNP 6

The SNP subsample being whack enough that it's taken 2 or 3 points off the Labour share

Still. Herding. Poll herding. MRP herding. Suggestions of Labour sub 40, possibly by a few points.

A 2005 redux with Labour getting a whomping majority on 36% would be funny. But also indicative of Labour having to work hard for a second term.

[TheTide]

The Greens on 9% would be more than what the Lib Dems got in 2015 and 2017...

[Logical]

First time I've entered the polling booth undecided.
I wish we could elect the PM separately to MPs this time.

Liberal Democrats Winning Here!

[jaichind]

The final Ipsos poll is out and it is a curious one: Lab 37, Con 18, Ref 15, LDem 11, Greens 9, SNP 6

The SNP subsample being whack enough that it's taken 2 or 3 points off the Labour share

Still. Herding. Poll herding. MRP herding. Suggestions of Labour sub 40, possibly by a few points.

A 2005 redux with Labour getting a whomping majority on 36% would be funny. But also indicative of Labour having to work hard for a second term.

It would be funny after all this the LAB vote share ends up below 2017.

[Torrain]

The final Ipsos poll is out and it is a curious one: Lab 37, Con 18, Ref 15, LDem 11, Greens 9, SNP 6

I know Ipsos is typically… bullish about the SNP (I remember them putting them 10% ahead of Labour, when all the other post-Sturgeon arrest polls were showing the gap closing). But “they’re going to win 60% of the Scottish vote” is taking the biscuit.

[Punxsutawney Phil]

The final Ipsos poll is out and it is a curious one: Lab 37, Con 18, Ref 15, LDem 11, Greens 9, SNP 6

The SNP subsample being whack enough that it's taken 2 or 3 points off the Labour share

Still. Herding. Poll herding. MRP herding. Suggestions of Labour sub 40, possibly by a few points.

A 2005 redux with Labour getting a whomping majority on 36% would be funny. But also indicative of Labour having to work hard for a second term.

It would be funny after all this the LAB vote share ends up below 2017.

That would be funny.

[YL]

Ipsos can be quite bouncy, but their Green and SNP figures do look high.

[Punxsutawney Phil]

When do the polls close?

Dallas and Chicago are 6 hours behind of London in UTC.
Portland and LA are 8.
Polls close at 10:00 p.m. BST. (British Standard Time I assume?)
Since I assume UK doesn't do daylight savings you can add one hour to these numbers in most of the US.

[TheTide]

Speaking personally, my OCD tendencies have a habit of playing up during times like this. This might explain why I have various rituals. One of them is to watch Cruel Intentions (1999) on the night prior to the election, which I did indeed do last night. I have various further ones today, none of which are quite as random (well possibly).

[afleitch]

The final Ipsos poll is out and it is a curious one: Lab 37, Con 18, Ref 15, LDem 11, Greens 9, SNP 6

I know Ipsos is typically… bullish about the SNP (I remember them putting them 10% ahead of Labour, when all the other post-Sturgeon arrest polls were showing the gap closing). But “they’re going to win 60% of the Scottish vote” is taking the biscuit.

It was a very small sample and it does seem like it's been hard to get response rates in Scotland.

Surprised we got no further Scottish polls, particularly no second polls from IPSOS and Opinium given they were the most bullish for the SNP at the start of the campaign. But again that might be due to the 'weans being off' and the start of the holidays.

If there has been a campaign shift from Labour and a very late shift (if) from Labour since the weekend and one fairly uniform across demographics; regions, age, class, Brexit recall etc (hat tip Dylan Difford) it would be unusual for Labour alone in Scotland, again cutting across these same demographics to be immune. Possible, but still curious enough to be something that could be missed because there were no late polls.

The polls have gotten slightly better for the SNP but the MRPs slightly worse. So a bit of a divergence here too. Still Survation with an implied 11 point Labour lead (now 6 points in todays update )and YouGov with an implied 1 point Labour lead give brutally similar outcomes.

[Torrain]

When do the polls close?

Dallas and Chicago are 6 hours behind of London in UTC.
Portland and LA are 8.
Polls close at 10:00 p.m. BST. (British Standard Time I assume?)
Since I assume UK doesn't do daylight savings you can add one hour to these numbers in most of the US.

BST = British Summer Time - one hour ahead of GMT (Greenwich Mean Time), our standard timezone.

We've been doing daylight savings since 1916.

[afleitch]

When you're on twitter trying to catch up on the latest analysis and all your favourites are in the Exit Poll Bunker.

Remembering of course that Sir David Butler is no longer with us.

[EastAnglianLefty]

The Uk lets commonwealth citizens vote in its elections?
WTF?

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-election-gives-hope-first-time-immigrant-voters-2024-07-02/?taid=6683dee9c900c3000152c056

This has always been the practice - up until the early 1980s Commonwealth citizens were formally classed as British citizens. A lot of the factors underlying the Windrush scandal relate to the historically very fuzzy nationality boundary.

Irish citizens also have the franchise. Partially this is for the same reasons as Commonwealth citizens, and partially it's because a substantial portion of NI's population hold Irish but not British passports.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Labour have stepped back a bit in all three of the constituencies around Cambridge city - activists who put a South Cambs/Ely/St Neots postcode into the Labour site are told to go to Peterborough. That means there should be more than one opening in this region, which is reflected in the MRP but may well be (partially) wasted.

A question for another day (possibly another month/year), but I’m curious whether there’s any jumpiness within local Labour circles over whether a Lib Dem breakthrough across Cambridgeshire makes the city itself more vulnerable for the next cycle.

There's always jumpiness, but at the moment my sense is that there's more worry about the Greens starting to cannibalise the LD vote and being more able to challenge for left-wing voters than the LDs have been able to post-coalition.

[Woke Frenzy]

When do the polls close?

Dallas and Chicago are 6 hours behind of London in UTC.
Portland and LA are 8.
Polls close at 10:00 p.m. BST. (British Standard Time I assume?)
Since I assume UK doesn't do daylight savings you can add one hour to these numbers in most of the US.

BST = British Summer Time - one hour ahead of GMT (Greenwich Mean Time), our standard timezone.

We've been doing daylight savings since 1916.

So, 10 o'clock pm in the UK 🇬🇧 ➡ 11 o'clock pm on the Continent 🇪🇺

And is it correct that the announcement of the results is handled differently in the UK than in other countries? I.e. the interim results won't keep getting tallied up (like in the US) or projected (like in Germany), only the final tally will be published instead. Right?