Is Texas' Future Blue?

[Christian Man]

I think people got way too excited about this based on 2016.  It's still somewhat less college educated and way more religious (including plenty of the college educated people) than the national average.  There's also a lot of evidence Texas Hispanics are culturally assimilating toward white Evangelicals.  That having been said, I don't think it will ever go back to being R+25, but there's no reason it wouldn't stay R+10ish for many years.  Maybe Dems eventually win it in a 2008 scenario as a one-time thing.   

What if a Conservadem wins as a Senator?

Outside of Cuellar who is DOA in 2024 and who is more of a moderate than a Conservadem, there isn't one I could think of who is in the wings. It's more likely that a more mainstream Dem similar to Beto could win if it's a particularly good year for Dems.

[Christian Man]

Here's what the future looks like (my crystal ball), circa 2040s

Pure tossups: AZ, DE, NJ, NM, NC, PA, RI, TX
Lean/Likely R: AK, KS, MI, NV, SC, TN, UT, WI
Lean/Likely D: GA, HI, IL, MN, NY

What about MS?