Generation Z

[Person Man]

In some ways, having the Alt-Right actually having to have their man govern the country, especially when he is so manifestly unqualified to do so, rather than allowing the movement to fester online for 4-8 more years, may have averted much worse consequences down the road.

It's funny and amusing to watch Trump troll the establishment. Having to actually run the country will be entirely different.

Not necessarily. Trump and his followers can just blame his shortcomings and a lack of economic improvement on the "others" now that they're in power. The alt right will now feel emboldened to primary moderate GOP leaders with their own mini Trump candidates.

I'm willing to bet that a lot of these Alt right supporters are teenagers and young white kids in middle class households. I doubt that they'll care much if Trump is incompetent, so long as he continues to provide dank meme material for them to work with.

So if there is a reaction against Trump's failures, where would it be?

[Wiz in Wis]

The oldest of this generation are just now driving... let's chill out before we decide if they're commies or Nazis.

[GlobeSoc]

Probably slightly more conservative than Millenials, but that may change depending on Trump.

Maybe regress to norm if he is succesful and maybe be at least as liberal as Millenials if not?

Yeah, if he's successful they would probably be a bellwether or slightly GOP driven by whites and assimilated hispanics trending to the GOP(the Asians would stay where they are for now, ditto with black voters), but if Trump fails horribly, the Dems would win even white Gen Z by double digits in 2020(To the end of time if that dem wins and is a good president). If he somehow becomes an average president(not likely IMO), they would be 5-10 points to the right of Millenials.

[Make My Bank Account Great Again]

In some ways, having the Alt-Right actually having to have their man govern the country, especially when he is so manifestly unqualified to do so, rather than allowing the movement to fester online for 4-8 more years, may have averted much worse consequences down the road.

It's funny and amusing to watch Trump troll the establishment. Having to actually run the country will be entirely different.

Not necessarily. Trump and his followers can just blame his shortcomings and a lack of economic improvement on the "others" now that they're in power. The alt right will now feel emboldened to primary moderate GOP leaders with their own mini Trump candidates.

I'm willing to bet that a lot of these Alt right supporters are teenagers and young white kids in middle class households. I doubt that they'll care much if Trump is incompetent, so long as he continues to provide dank meme material for them to work with.

So if there is a reaction against Trump's failures, where would it be?

From the left and center.

The alt right is only a fringe element within the GOP. I think they'll gain more support from within the confines of the GOP base as Trump serves his term, but I doubt that they'll branch out to the center of the political spectrum. Most people (including republicans) find the movement repulsive.

[Make My Bank Account Great Again]

Probably slightly more conservative than Millenials, but that may change depending on Trump.

Maybe regress to norm if he is succesful and maybe be at least as liberal as Millenials if not?

Yeah, if he's successful they would probably be a bellwether or slightly GOP driven by whites and assimilated hispanics trending to the GOP(the Asians would stay where they are for now, ditto with black voters), but if Trump fails horribly, the Dems would win even white Gen Z by double digits in 2020(To the end of time if that dem wins and is a good president). If he somehow becomes an average president(not likely IMO), they would be 5-10 points to the right of Millenials.

I think asians will assimilate just as quickly into the white hegemony as Hispanics will. Asians marry whites at the same rate if not higher than Hispanics do. Their College attainment rates are also the highest of any group.

[Person Man]

Probably slightly more conservative than Millenials, but that may change depending on Trump.

Maybe regress to norm if he is succesful and maybe be at least as liberal as Millenials if not?

Yeah, if he's successful they would probably be a bellwether or slightly GOP driven by whites and assimilated hispanics trending to the GOP(the Asians would stay where they are for now, ditto with black voters), but if Trump fails horribly, the Dems would win even white Gen Z by double digits in 2020(To the end of time if that dem wins and is a good president). If he somehow becomes an average president(not likely IMO), they would be 5-10 points to the right of Millenials.

I think asians will assimilate just as quickly into the white hegemony as Hispanics will. Asians marry whites at the same rate if not higher than Hispanics do. Their College attainment rates are also the highest of any group.

Yet Asians are 2:1 D. I will go with the above prognosis that they will not vote R under any circumstance if Trump screws up and will only vote D in a minor landslide if he is the next Reagan and winnable by Rs in a minor landslide if he turns out to be an HW, Clinton or not as good as Obama.

[Make My Bank Account Great Again]

Probably slightly more conservative than Millenials, but that may change depending on Trump.

Maybe regress to norm if he is succesful and maybe be at least as liberal as Millenials if not?

Yeah, if he's successful they would probably be a bellwether or slightly GOP driven by whites and assimilated hispanics trending to the GOP(the Asians would stay where they are for now, ditto with black voters), but if Trump fails horribly, the Dems would win even white Gen Z by double digits in 2020(To the end of time if that dem wins and is a good president). If he somehow becomes an average president(not likely IMO), they would be 5-10 points to the right of Millenials.

I think asians will assimilate just as quickly into the white hegemony as Hispanics will. Asians marry whites at the same rate if not higher than Hispanics do. Their College attainment rates are also the highest of any group.

Yet Asians are 2:1 D. I will go with the above prognosis that they will not vote R under any circumstance if Trump screws up and will only vote D in a minor landslide if he is the next Reagan and winnable by Rs in a minor landslide if he turns out to be an HW, Clinton or not as good as Obama.

Most Asians are either new immigrants or live in very Left leaning states (CA, OR, WA, NY, etc.)

Migration patterns to redder states and continued assimilation will likely lead them to being more mixed in their political leanings. It might take a generation or two to come to fruition.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

"They're nazis!"

"They're SJW communists!"

You're all missing the point. The defining trait of Generation Z is extremism, and that's bad news for both parties.

[GlobeSoc]

Probably slightly more conservative than Millenials, but that may change depending on Trump.

Maybe regress to norm if he is succesful and maybe be at least as liberal as Millenials if not?

Yeah, if he's successful they would probably be a bellwether or slightly GOP driven by whites and assimilated hispanics trending to the GOP(the Asians would stay where they are for now, ditto with black voters), but if Trump fails horribly, the Dems would win even white Gen Z by double digits in 2020(To the end of time if that dem wins and is a good president). If he somehow becomes an average president(not likely IMO), they would be 5-10 points to the right of Millenials.

I think asians will assimilate just as quickly into the white hegemony as Hispanics will. Asians marry whites at the same rate if not higher than Hispanics do. Their College attainment rates are also the highest of any group.

Yet Asians are 2:1 D. I will go with the above prognosis that they will not vote R under any circumstance if Trump screws up and will only vote D in a minor landslide if he is the next Reagan and winnable by Rs in a minor landslide if he turns out to be an HW, Clinton or not as good as Obama.

Most Asians are either new immigrants or live in very Left leaning states (CA, OR, WA, NY, etc.)

Migration patterns to redder states and continued assimilation will likely lead them to being more mixed in their political leanings. It might take a generation or two to come to fruition.

I agree. They should PVI trend very slightly GOP from a trickle of assimilation, but it will take until the post Gen Z youth come of age to be politically significant. This should come regardless of alignment, but would be bigger, even voting close to the nation if/when the fiscal conservative suburbanites return to power in the republican party.

[BaldEagle1991]

Probably slightly more conservative than Millenials, but that may change depending on Trump.

Maybe regress to norm if he is succesful and maybe be at least as liberal as Millenials if not?

Yeah, if he's successful they would probably be a bellwether or slightly GOP driven by whites and assimilated hispanics trending to the GOP(the Asians would stay where they are for now, ditto with black voters), but if Trump fails horribly, the Dems would win even white Gen Z by double digits in 2020(To the end of time if that dem wins and is a good president). If he somehow becomes an average president(not likely IMO), they would be 5-10 points to the right of Millenials.

I think asians will assimilate just as quickly into the white hegemony as Hispanics will. Asians marry whites at the same rate if not higher than Hispanics do. Their College attainment rates are also the highest of any group.

Not true, unless they're Filipinos.

[Person Man]

Maybe Generation Z will be more R because the alt-Right is that cool. Think of it. It is the ultimate hipster ideology. Hipsters are always about making old uncool things cool again (you know, descredited racist neo-monarchist ideology from the 1920s-1950s) and the entire "Alt-" label just screams cool, alternative, edgy, and hip.

[Green Line]

Is this the Generation after the Zombie apocalypse?  I'd imagine they will be big supporters of the wall.

[Figueira]

"They're nazis!"

"They're SJW communists!"

You're all missing the point. The defining trait of Generation Z is extremism, and that's bad news for both parties.

Can we even say that at this point? They're fifteen years old at most, and the closest thing we have to a poll of them is a tiny subsample of a British poll by a marketing group, and anecdotal stories from ClassicConservative's school.

[Make My Bank Account Great Again]

"They're nazis!"

"They're SJW communists!"

You're all missing the point. The defining trait of Generation Z is extremism, and that's bad news for both parties.

Can we even say that at this point? They're fifteen years old at most, and the closest thing we have to a poll of them is a tiny subsample of a British poll by a marketing group, and anecdotal stories from ClassicConservative's school.

Maybe. I've read that Generation Z can start as early as 96, meaning that 20 year olds like myself would be the start of it. Some sites claim that it's the generation that doesn't remember 9/11, which would include me oddly enough.

[Figueira]

"They're nazis!"

"They're SJW communists!"

You're all missing the point. The defining trait of Generation Z is extremism, and that's bad news for both parties.

Can we even say that at this point? They're fifteen years old at most, and the closest thing we have to a poll of them is a tiny subsample of a British poll by a marketing group, and anecdotal stories from ClassicConservative's school.

Maybe. I've read that Generation Z can start as early as 96, meaning that 20 year olds like myself would be the start of it. Some sites claim that it's the generation that doesn't remember 9/11, which would include me oddly enough.

I generally consider it to start at 2001. And the OP of this thread claims that they're voting for the first time this cycle, which implies that it wouldn't include 1996ers. Also OP links to a flawed British study of fourteen- and fifteen-year-olds.

[Frodo]

How are we defining Generation Z? 

[Make My Bank Account Great Again]

How are we defining Generation Z? 

They typically start in the year 2000.

[Virginiá]

Yeah, if he's successful they would probably be a bellwether or slightly GOP driven by whites and assimilated hispanics trending to the GOP(the Asians would stay where they are for now, ditto with black voters), but if Trump fails horribly, the Dems would win even white Gen Z by double digits in 2020(To the end of time if that dem wins and is a good president). If he somehow becomes an average president(not likely IMO), they would be 5-10 points to the right of Millenials.

I think this is somewhat right (though I think I disagree a bit on the genz white vote share you posited). Which party controls the White House and how well that incumbent does/is perceived means a lot to young adults growing up. It contributes generously to shaping their default political affiliations. It's why greatest generation voters were so reliably Democratic and silent generation voters are so reliably republican (FDR vs Eisenhower), and so on.

Trump will be the first real taste of the Republican party many of these voters will have. If he blows it, presides over another recession, has a very corrupt administration, etc, then he will very likely push those voters towards Democrats. If an authentic, well-liked Democrat succeeds him in 2020, they could potentially lock in a decade's worth (or more) of new voters for Democrats, on top of what BClinton/Bush/Obama did for us w/ Millennials & young genx'ers. Plus, one also has to remember the significant diversity of newer generations. They are likely to remain very Democratic for some time, at least until the GOP figures out how to appeal to minorities, which will probably take decades.

Also, this appears to be for the EU or even just the UK. I have a tough time seeing them being more significantly anti-drug and anti-gay marriage in the US by the time they reach voting age, so I'll wait for more comprehensive studies of American GenZ'ers before I draw conclusions. Lastly, in 2018 we should get a small taste of their preferences as at least the very first of their generation will be of voting age then (assuming interpretation of genz being 2000+)

[Make My Bank Account Great Again]

Yeah, if he's successful they would probably be a bellwether or slightly GOP driven by whites and assimilated hispanics trending to the GOP(the Asians would stay where they are for now, ditto with black voters), but if Trump fails horribly, the Dems would win even white Gen Z by double digits in 2020(To the end of time if that dem wins and is a good president). If he somehow becomes an average president(not likely IMO), they would be 5-10 points to the right of Millenials.

I think this is somewhat right (though I think I disagree a bit on the genz white vote share you posited). Which party controls the White House and how well that incumbent does/is perceived means a lot to young adults growing up. It contributes generously to shaping their default political affiliations. It's why greatest generation voters were so reliably Democratic and silent generation voters are so reliably republican (FDR vs Eisenhower), and so on.

Trump will be the first real taste of the Republican party many of these voters will have. If he blows it, presides over another recession, has a very corrupt administration, etc, then he will very likely push those voters towards Democrats. If an authentic, well-liked Democrat succeeds him in 2020, they could potentially lock in a decade's worth (or more) of new voters for Democrats, on top of what BClinton/Bush/Obama did for us w/ Millennials & young genx'ers. Plus, one also has to remember the significant diversity of newer generations. They are likely to remain very Democratic for some time, at least until the GOP figures out how to appeal to minorities, which will probably take decades.

Also, this appears to be for the EU or even just the UK. I have a tough time seeing them being more significantly anti-drug and anti-gay marriage in the US by the time they reach voting age, so I'll wait for more comprehensive studies of American GenZ'ers before I draw conclusions. Lastly, in 2018 we should get a small taste of their preferences as at least the very first of their generation will be of voting age then (assuming interpretation of genz being 2000+)

I don't think they'll be against gay marriage either.

But they might not be as comfortable with transgender/gender identity issues. For some reason I expect them to have a pushback on this.

I'd also expect the racial divide between party identification to be stronger then millennials. Seems like the internet is pushing more young white kids into the alt right bubble and nonwhite kids into the tumblr bubble.

[Figueira]

As I said before the poll is of the UK and it is a tiny subsample so can safely be ignored even if we were discussing British politics here. It's kind of like those Google polls that had Clinton way ahead in Kansas.

And I don't really see a pushback on trans rights--that sort of thing hasn't happened with any other civil rights movement.

[136or142]

From 538: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-probably-did-better-with-latino-voters-than-romney-did/

You must be logged in to read this quote.

She outperformed Obama in certain Latino counties, but underperformed in other Latino heavy counties. Also as another user named hopper noted in another thread, The Latino Decisions survey doesn't include data from latinos with non-Latino surnames. So Hispanic women who don't use their maiden name (if they married a non Hispanic person) weren't included in the survey. This demographic is much more likely to be conservative than Hispanics as a whole.

So maybe we'll never fully know if he did improve Romney's numbers with Hispanics, but it's overwhelmingly likely that the backlash Trump received from the Hispanic community as a whole was negligible at best.

Donald Trump may have done better in heavily Latino counties with smaller populations, but he clearly did not do as well in the big cities with large Latino populations.  All you need to do is look at the states with large Latino populations to determine that:  California, Texas and Arizona.

Florida is a bit different, and I realize Trump did better than Romney in Colorado,  Nevada and lost by a smaller margin in New Mexico, but on balance, I think the results are quite clear.  Again, it's not so much that Hillary Clinton gained with Latinos, but in those three states, Trump clearly saw a vote decline relative to Romney with Latinos.  There were other candidates on the ballot.

[Virginiá]

I'd also expect the racial divide between party identification to be stronger then millennials. Seems like the internet is pushing more young white kids into the alt right bubble and nonwhite kids into the tumblr bubble.

It's possible. White Millennials are already significantly more Democratic than the white electorate as a whole. That gap among Generation Z voters could double and it would still be extremely troublesome for Republicans long-term, assuming their margins among those white voters going forward would be stuck at around 14 - 16 or so points, which is entirely possible, if not probable.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Yeah, if he's successful they would probably be a bellwether or slightly GOP driven by whites and assimilated hispanics trending to the GOP(the Asians would stay where they are for now, ditto with black voters), but if Trump fails horribly, the Dems would win even white Gen Z by double digits in 2020(To the end of time if that dem wins and is a good president). If he somehow becomes an average president(not likely IMO), they would be 5-10 points to the right of Millenials.

I think this is somewhat right (though I think I disagree a bit on the genz white vote share you posited). Which party controls the White House and how well that incumbent does/is perceived means a lot to young adults growing up. It contributes generously to shaping their default political affiliations. It's why greatest generation voters were so reliably Democratic and silent generation voters are so reliably republican (FDR vs Eisenhower), and so on.

Trump will be the first real taste of the Republican party many of these voters will have. If he blows it, presides over another recession, has a very corrupt administration, etc, then he will very likely push those voters towards Democrats. If an authentic, well-liked Democrat succeeds him in 2020, they could potentially lock in a decade's worth (or more) of new voters for Democrats, on top of what BClinton/Bush/Obama did for us w/ Millennials & young genx'ers. Plus, one also has to remember the significant diversity of newer generations. They are likely to remain very Democratic for some time, at least until the GOP figures out how to appeal to minorities, which will probably take decades.

Also, this appears to be for the EU or even just the UK. I have a tough time seeing them being more significantly anti-drug and anti-gay marriage in the US by the time they reach voting age, so I'll wait for more comprehensive studies of American GenZ'ers before I draw conclusions. Lastly, in 2018 we should get a small taste of their preferences as at least the very first of their generation will be of voting age then (assuming interpretation of genz being 2000+)

I don't think they'll be against gay marriage either.

But they might not be as comfortable with transgender/gender identity issues. For some reason I expect them to have a pushback on this.

I'd also expect the racial divide between party identification to be stronger then millennials. Seems like the internet is pushing more young white kids into the alt right bubble and nonwhite kids into the tumblr bubble.

I think we can exaggerate the influence of both movements. The vast majority of Americans of all generations are not interested in politics enough to define as either alt right or SJW or whatever.

[Figueira]

I expect the gender gap to get bigger, if my Facebook feed is any indication.

[Make My Bank Account Great Again]

I think we can exaggerate the influence of both movements. The vast majority of Americans of all generations are not interested in politics enough to define as either alt right or SJW or whatever.

What about all those memes? Surely they must have significant political influence over the younger generations given that for may of them memes might be their only source of political information besides their family/schooling. 

And it seems like the extremists have a monopoly on memes. That can't be good.