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136or142
Adam T
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 7,434
« on: December 12, 2016, 02:54:49 AM »

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This is based on one exit poll that seems to be completely wrong.  If you look at the vote totals in states with large Hispanic populations there is no way that Trump did better than Romney with Hispanics overall.

Look at the vote shifts in Arizona, Texas and California.  Hillary Clinton doesn't seem to have increased the share of the Democratic vote much over 2012, but Trump dropped quite a bit compared to Romney.  So, the possible explanation is that a lot of Romney Hispanic voters voted for a third party candidate.
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136or142
Adam T
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,434
« Reply #1 on: December 13, 2016, 04:13:35 PM »

From 538: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-probably-did-better-with-latino-voters-than-romney-did/

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She outperformed Obama in certain Latino counties, but underperformed in other Latino heavy counties. Also as another user named hopper noted in another thread, The Latino Decisions survey doesn't include data from latinos with non-Latino surnames. So Hispanic women who don't use their maiden name (if they married a non Hispanic person) weren't included in the survey. This demographic is much more likely to be conservative than Hispanics as a whole.

So maybe we'll never fully know if he did improve Romney's numbers with Hispanics, but it's overwhelmingly likely that the backlash Trump received from the Hispanic community as a whole was negligible at best.

Donald Trump may have done better in heavily Latino counties with smaller populations, but he clearly did not do as well in the big cities with large Latino populations.  All you need to do is look at the states with large Latino populations to determine that:  California, Texas and Arizona.

Florida is a bit different, and I realize Trump did better than Romney in Colorado,  Nevada and lost by a smaller margin in New Mexico, but on balance, I think the results are quite clear.  Again, it's not so much that Hillary Clinton gained with Latinos, but in those three states, Trump clearly saw a vote decline relative to Romney with Latinos.  There were other candidates on the ballot.
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