How did the 2016 predictions compare?

[Princess Nyan Cat]

Hello, dear Atlasians.  Now that the Louisiana elections are finally complete, I make a rare visit once again to compare the accuracy of the multitude of election predictions.  For past election cycles, see...

2014:  https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=208958.0
2012:  https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=187008.0

Lots of new predictions were added this year, and as you'd expect from the shocking result, none did that great a job at the Presidential level.  Accuracy results for Senate, House and Governor races were more typical, though perhaps the victor in House elections may come as a surprise!

The "score" is a simple one based on whether the prediction picked the right party to win and does not attempt to assess strength of victory.  It is often difficult to quantify terms like Tilt, Lean, Likely, Moderate, Strong, Solid, and so on when many of the sites do not clearly define what those qualifications mean.  A prediction of "tossup" is automatically classified as wrong since the prognosticator was unwilling to make a stand one way or the other.

Enjoy!

[Princess Nyan Cat]

Presidential election - grades on at least 51 races (50 states + DC) and up to 56 (50 states + DC + congressional districts in Maine and Nebraska)

Many new prediction sources were added this year for a grand total of 32.  My past superstars Larry Sabato, Scott Elliott, and PredictWise were all at or near the top but Real Clear Politics and Electoral Map were also impressive.

92.9% - Election Projection (Scott Elliott) - 52/56 correct (2012: 50/51)
92.9% - Real Clear Politics - 52/56 correct (2012: 42/53)

92.2% - Electoral Map (Pivit) - 47/51 correct (2012: 50/51 using Intrade)

91.1% - Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball - 51/56 correct (2012: 52/54)
91.1% - New York Times - 51/56 correct (2012: 46/53)
91.1% - PredictWise - 51/56 correct
91.1% - Princess Nyan Cat =^..^= - 51/56 correct (2012: 55/56)

90.2% - CrossTab (G. Elliott Morris) - 46/51 correct
90.2% - Daily Kos - 46/51 correct
90.2% - DeSart & Holbrook Forecasting - 46/51 correct
90.2% - PolyVote (Andreas Graefe) - 46/51 correct

89.3% - 538 (Nate Silver) - 50/56 correct (2012: 55/56)
89.3% - Dave Leip's Atlas aggregate - 50/56 correct (2012: 55/56)
89.3% - PredictIt prediction market - 50/56 correct
89.3% - Princeton Election Consortium (Sam Wang) - 50/56 correct

88.2% - Electoral Vote (Andrew Tanenbaum) - 45/51 correct (2012: 49/51)
88.2% - People's Pundit Daily - 45/51 correct
88.2% - Rothenberg & Gonzalez Political Report - 45/51 correct (2012: 43/51)
88.2% - Washington Post - 45/51 correct (2012: 44/51)

87.5% - Cook Political Report - 49/56 correct (2012: 49/56)
87.5% - Huffington Post - 49/56 correct (2012: 47/51)
87.5% - National Public Radio - 49/56 correct

86.3% - Los Angeles Times - 44/51 correct
86.3% - Talking Points Memo - 44/51 correct (2012: 48/51)

83.9% - ABC News - 47/56 correct (2012: 43/51)
83.9% - CNN - 47/56 correct (2012: 43/51)
83.9% - Governing - 47/56 correct
83.9% - Race-4 - 47/56 correct (2012: 51/53)

82.4% - YouGov - 42/51 correct

82.1% - Associated Press - 46/56 correct

80.4% - NBC News - 45/56 correct

74.5% - Fox News - 38/51 correct (2012: 45/51)

70.6% - USA Today - 36/51 correct

Showing how poorly the experts did overall, every prediction was wrong in 3 states -- Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Only 4 were right in Florida -- Real Clear Politics, EVP-Scott Elliott, People's Pundit Daily, and Electoral Map.

Only 5 were right in North Carolina -- Real Clear Politics, EVP-Scott Elliott, DeSart & Holbrook, People's Pundit Daily, and Electoral Map.

[Princess Nyan Cat]

Senate elections - graded on 34 races

Includes a total of 16 prediction sources.

94.4% - 538 (Nate Silver) - 32 correct (2014: 34/36, 2012: 31/33)
94.1% - Dave Leip's Atlas aggregate - 32 correct (2014: 35/36, 2012: 31/33)
94.1% - Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball - 32 correct (2014: 35/36, 2012: 31/33)
94.1% - New York Times - 32 correct (2014: 35/36, 2012: 24/33)
94.1% - PredictWise - 32 correct (2014: 35/36)
94.1% - Princess Nyan Cat =^..^= - 32 correct (2014: 35/36, 2012: 31/33)

91.2% - Daily Kos - 31 correct (2014: 35/36)
91.2% - Election Projection (Scott Elliott) - 31 correct (2014: 34/36, 2012: 31/33)
91.2% - Electoral Vote (Andrew Tanenbaum) - 31 correct (2014: 34/36, 2012: 29/33)
91.2% - Real Clear Politics - 31 correct (2014: 34/36, 2012: 26/33)

88.2% - Huffington Post - 30 correct (2014: 35/36, 2012: 28/33)
88.2% - Princeton Election Consortium (Sam Wang) - 30 correct (2014: 34/36)

85.3% - Talking Points Memo - 29 correct (2012: 28/33)

79.4% - Cook Political Report - 27 correct (2014: 27/36, 2012: 23/33)
79.4% - Rothenberg & Gonzalez Political Report - 27 correct (2014: 32/36, 2012: 29/33)
79.4% - Washington Post - 27 correct (2014: 35/36, 2012: 28/33)

73.5% - Ballotpedia - 25 correct

Every prediction was wrong for Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Dishonorable mention to Sam Wang, who I was tempted to grade 0% after we had to get his predictions from the New York Times because they were impossible to find on his own site.  When my husband asked about this, his post was deleted.  That's the second election something like this has happened.  From reviewing his blog, I get the impression he is especially arrogant and can't tolerate anything but fawning praise from his readers.

[Princess Nyan Cat]

House elections - graded on 435 races (number wrong listed instead of correct)

Includes a total of 9 prediction sources.  While the usual suspects did well, look at who is the Queen of the Heap!  Yay!

99.1% - Princess Nyan Cat =^..^= - 4 wrong (2014: 13, 2012: 11)

98.6% - PredictWise - 6 wrong (2014: 13)

98.4% - Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball - 7 wrong (2014: 10, 2012: 13)

98.2% - Election Projection (Scott Elliott) - 8 wrong (2014: 10, 2012: 12)

97.0% - Rothenberg & Gonzalez Political Report - 13 wrong (2014: 17, 2012: 24)

95.9% - Cook Political Report - 18 wrong (2014: 24, 2012: 31)

95.6% - Washington Post - 19 wrong (2014: 15, 2012: 26)

95.4% - Daily Kos - 20 wrong (2014: 21)

95.2% - Real Clear Politics - 21 wrong (2014: 31, 2012: 35)

94.7% - Ballotpedia - 23 wrong

Every prediction was wrong for these 2 districts: Minnesota-2, Texas-23

Only one prediction was right for these 2 districts: Maine-2 (PredictWise), Nebraska-2 (PredictWise)

[Princess Nyan Cat]

Governor elections - graded on 12 races

Includes a total of 10 prediction sources.  There's a lot of variety ranging from very, very good to very, very poor.  For the first time since I've been doing these comparisons, one source predicted every race correctly.  Congrats, PredictWise!  And maybe you should find a new line of work, Governing!

100.% - PredictWise - 12 correct (2014: 32/36)

91.7% - Election Projection (Scott Elliott) - 11 correct (2014: 32/36, 2012: 10/11)
91.7% - Princess Nyan Cat =^..^= - 11 correct (2014: 31/36, 2012: 10/11)

83.3% - Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball - 10 correct (2014: 31/36, 2012: 10/11)
83.3% - Rothenberg & Gonzalez Political Report - 10 correct (2014: 29/36, 2012: 9/11)

75.0% - Dave Leip's Atlas aggregate - 9 correct (2014: 31/36, 2012: 11/11)
75.0% - Washington Post - 9 correct (2012: 8/11)

50.0% - Cook Political Report - 6 correct (2014: 23/36, 2012: 8/11)
50.0% - Daily Kos - 6 correct (2014: 31/36)
50.0% - Real Clear Politics - 6 correct (2014: 32/36, 2012: 9/11)

41.7% - Governing - 5 correct (2014: 23/36)

Only two predictions were right for Indiana (PredictWise, Rothenberg)

[Princess Nyan Cat]

Overall Grade

Averaging the scores, here is how they all compare.  It's a little bit apples and oranges since some predict more races than others.  Nevertheless, PredictWise seems to emerge as the superstar prognosticator for the 2016 cycle!  And somehow cuddly little Nyan Cat outdid all the rest!

96.0% - PredictWise (2014: 94.4%, 2012: -)
94.0% - Princess Nyan Cat =^..^= (2014: 93.4%, 2012: 95.1%)
93.5% - Election Projection (Scott Elliott) (2014: 93.7%, 2012: 95.0%)
92.6% - New York Times (2014: 97.2%, 2012: 84.3%)
92.2% - Electoral Map (2014: 91.2%, 2012: 98.0%)
91.7% - 538 (Nate Silver) (2014: 90.3%, 2012: 96.1%)
91.7% - Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball (2014: 93.7%, 2012: 94.5%)
90.2% - CrossTab (G. Elliott Morris) (2014: -, 2012: -)
90.2% - DeSart & Holbrook Forecasting (2014: -, 2012: -)
90.2% - PolyVote (Andreas Graefe) (2014: -, 2012: -)

89.7% - Electoral Vote (Andrew Tanenbaum) (2014: 94.4%, 2012: 92.0%)
89.3% - PredictIt predicion market (2014: -, 2012: -)
88.8% - Princeton Election Consortium (Sam Wang) (2014: 94.4%, 2012: -)
88.2% - People's Pundit Daily (2014: 90.3%, 2012: -)
87.9% - Huffington Post (2014: 91.7%, 2012: 90.5%)
87.5% - National Public Radio (2014: -, 2012: -)
87.0% - Rothenberg & Gonzalez Political Report (2014: 88.5%, 2012: 87.1%)
86.3% - Los Angeles Times (2014: -, 2012: -)
86.1% - Dave Leip's Atlas aggregate (2014: 91.7%, 2012: 97.4%)
85.8% - Talking Points Memo (2014: -, 2012: 89.5%)
84.6% - Washington Post (2014: 96.9%, 2012: 84.5%)
84.1% - Ballotpedia (2014: -, 2012: -)
83.9% - ABC News (2014: -, 2012: 84.3%)
83.9% - Race4 (2014: -, 2012: 96.2%)
83.9% - CNN (2014: -, 2012: 84.3%)
82.4% - YouGov (2014: -, 2012: -)
82.3% - Real Clear Politics (2014: 92.1%, 2012: 91.5%)
82.1% - Associated Press (2014: -, 2012: -)
81.7% - Daily Kos (2014: 92.8%, 2012: -)
80.4% - NBC News (2014: -, 2012: -)

78.2% - Cook Political Report (2014: 77.8%, 2012: 80.7%)
74.5% - Fox News (2014: -, 2012: 88.2%)
70.6% - USA Today (2014: 79.1%, 2012: -)
62.8% - Governing (2014: -%, 2012: -)

That's it for now.  Maybe I'll see you again in another 2 years!

[Princess Nyan Cat]

Thanks for the compliment, Vosem.  I don't post much being so busy with a career.  But I get the urge to toil over my my massive election prediction spreadsheet every couple years.