Brazil municipal elections. 1st round: October 6th 2024. 2nd round: October 27th 2024.

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All the 5568 Brazilian municipalities will elect their mayors (prefeitos) and legislators (vereadores) on October 6th 2024. In the municipalities with more than 200K voters, if no candidate for mayor reach 50% of the valid vote on October 6th, a runoff will take place on October 27th.

In São Paulo-SP, the major candidates will be probably the leftist Guilherme Boulos (PSOL), endorsed by Lula, and the incumbent mayor Ricardo Nunes (MDB), who belongs to the non-bolsonarist right. Even though, he will be endorsed by Bolsonaro, since he is not popular in São Paulo-SP and a pure bolsonarist candidate has very low probability to win. Boulos's running mate will probably be Marta, a former São Paulo PT mayor (2001-2004), who decided to leave PT and vote for Dilma Rousseff's impeachment in 2016, but now she went back to the PT.

In Rio de Janeiro-RJ, the centrist incumbent mayor Eduardo Paes, endorsed by Lula, will easily probably. His main competitors will be, on the left, Tarcísio Motta (PSOL), and on the right, the bolsonarist Alexandre Ramagem (PL). But we still don't know if Ramagem will really run, since he is in the middle of a espionage scandal. The Federal Police found that when Ramagem was the chief of the Abin (Brazilian Inteligence Agency), he conducted illegal espionage of Bolsonaro's opponents.

While the 2022 presidential election was very polarized between Lula (PT) and Bolsonaro (PL), the center and the center-right will probably win a lot of municipalities in 2024. PT and PL don't have strong candidates in many municipalities.

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Poll Mayor São Paulo-SP Real Time Big Data March 2024

Guilherme Boulos (PSOL) 34%
Ricardo Nunes (MDB) 29%
Tabata Amaral (PSB) 10%
Kim Kataguiri (União) 5%
Maria Helena (Novo) 1%
Padre Kelmon 1%

Runoff
Nunes 40%
Boulos 38%

The race for mayor of São Paulo-SP in 2024 will be very close and polarized. A rematch of the 2022 presidential election.

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Atlas Poll, April 2024

Mayor of São Paulo-SP

1st round
Guilherme Boulos (PSOL) 35.6%
Ricardo Nunes (MDB) 33.7%
Tabata Amaral (PSB) 14.7%
Kataguiri (UB) 9.4%

Runoff
Ricardo Nunes (MDB) 44.8%
Guilherme Boulos (PSOL) 44.3%

Mayor of Rio de Janeiro-RJ

1st round
Eduardo Paes (PSD) 42.6%
Ramagem (PL) 31.2%
Tarcísio Motta (PSOL) 12.7%

Runoff
Eduardo Paes (PSD) 51.0%
Ramagem (PL) 36.7%


Atlas had better performance in the last elections. It didn't underrate the right, like Ipec and Datafolha did.

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Ricardo Nunes's campaign will be a reversed broad front.

Lula's campaign in 2022 was a broad front against the far-right. Even the center-right had place in this broad front. Nunes's campaign is a broad front against the left. So, both the far-right (pro-Bolsonaro) and the center-right (the "non-bolsonarist right") are inside. Governor Tarcísio Freitas, who is a former Bolsonaro's minister, and former president Michel Temer were at a campaign event yesterday.


This reversed broad front shows us what can happen in the race for president in 2026. The difference between the pro-Bolsonaro right and the non-Bolsonaro right can disapear. If Bolsonaro becomes the candidate in 2026, the non-Bolsonaro right will have another candidate. But if a pro-Bolsonaro governor runs (examples: Tarcísio Freitas, Romeu Zema, Claudio Castro, Ratinho Junior, Ronaldo Caiado), it's possible that the "non-Bolsonaro" right supports him.

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Atlas Poll April 2024

Approval rate of mayor, governor and president in the city of Rio de Janeiro-RJ


Opinion of the population of the city of Rio de Janeiro-RJ on these politicians


Approval rate of mayor, governor and president in the city of São Paulo-SP


Opinion of the population of the city of São Paulo-SP on these politicians